Evaluation indicator equilibrium state analysis method based on Bayesian causal network

Abstract

The invention discloses an evaluation index equilibrium state analysis method based on Bayesian causal network, comprising the following steps: establishing a system evaluation index system, and determining exogenous factors affecting the system; obtaining a corresponding endogenous variable set from the evaluation index, The exogenous input variable set is obtained from the exogenous influencing factors of the system, and the output variable set is obtained from the evaluation results; a three-layer Bayesian causal network structure is constructed according to the endogenous variable set, exogenous input variable set and output variable set, and the conditional The independence test finds the causal relationship between variables; conducts system dynamics modeling and simulation calculations to obtain the equilibrium state of each variable according to the Bayesian causal network structure and the causal relationship between variables; maps the equilibrium state of each variable to the evaluation Indexes, the equilibrium state of each evaluation index under the constraints of exogenous conditions is obtained. The invention has the following advantages: it can effectively discover the causal relationship between the evaluation indexes in the complex system and obtain the equilibrium state of the evaluation indexes under different conditions.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of system evaluation index analysis, in particular to an evaluation index equilibrium state analysis method based on a Bayesian causal network. Background technique [0002] Evaluation index equilibrium state analysis is an important issue in the field of system evaluation index analysis, and it is also one of the key technologies to realize system optimization and transformation. In the construction of the traditional index system, the orthogonality between the indexes is required, but with the continuous breakthrough and application of emerging technologies, the correlation between the various elements in many systems in reality is becoming increasingly complex. Under the requirements of systematically carrying out the evaluation, there are inevitably some causal links among the obtained evaluation indicators. There is an internal causal relationship between the evaluation indicators of the system. In the actual en...

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Problems solved by technology

Such a method is simple and intuitive, but it is not suitable for complex systems with internal causal relationships between indicators, because the optimization of a single indicator may affect other indicators. One of the indicators may not help to improve the overall function of the system, but may cause waste of resources due to invalid investment

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