Arrival time prediction device, arrival time prediction system, and program

Abstract

From travel data (probe data) collected from a plurality of general vehicles, travel speeds (probe speeds) in respective road sections are obtained, and from the probe speeds, a traffic volume in a predetermined road section is estimated. Subsequently, mixed-traffic travel speeds in the respective road sections are estimated using the traffic volume that has been estimated (estimated traffic volume) and on the assumption of a mixed traffic in which general vehicles and a street public transportation coexist. Then, using the estimated values of the mixed-traffic travel speeds, the time of arrival at a predetermined point and a delay time in a case where the street public transportation travels along a predetermined route are predicted.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to an arrival time prediction device and an arrival time for predicting the arrival time of road public transportation at a predetermined location based on travel data (probe data) of ordinary vehicles when mixed traffic in which ordinary vehicles and road public transportation are assumed to coexist. Prediction systems and procedures. Background technique [0002] Road public transportation is a means of transportation that transports a large number of unspecified passengers in accordance with a route and an operation schedule defined along a road, such as a streetcar, a bus, and the like. Even if the road on which it is scheduled to travel is congested, this kind of road public transportation will not take detours to avoid the congestion, so it is easy to get involved in the congestion and it is difficult to achieve on-time operation. Therefore, for example, in the case of route buses, conventional bus positioning syste...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] Bus detection can only obtain the traffic conditions at the passing time of the road section traveled by the first bus. Therefore, when the second bus travels on the same road section, the traffic conditions may be different from those when the first bus passes.

In addition, even if the congestion that occurs in the road section of the non-bus route will have an impact on the congestion of the bus route in the future, it is difficult to capture this phenomenon and predict the travel time of the next bus. There is a gap in the prediction accuracy of the travel time. topic

Images