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Temperature prediction method of high voltage cable joints

A high-voltage cable and prediction method technology, applied in electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of power cable insulation medium breakdown, local temperature rise, electric field concentration, etc., and achieves good convergence, The effect of fast training speed and high prediction accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-08-29
SHANGHAI MUNICIPAL ELECTRIC POWER CO
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Defects inside the cable joint will cause the electric field to concentrate and the local temperature to rise. If it exceeds 137°C, the insulation medium of the power cable will undergo electric-thermal breakdown, which will seriously affect the safe and reliable operation of the power grid.
The temperature of the joint can well reflect the operation status of the cable joint. The existing cable monitoring system can collect real-time data on the temperature of the cable joint, but it cannot predict it.

Method used

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  • Temperature prediction method of high voltage cable joints
  • Temperature prediction method of high voltage cable joints
  • Temperature prediction method of high voltage cable joints

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Embodiment

[0033] 1. Least square support vector machine prediction algorithm

[0034] The basic idea of ​​support vector machine data regression is to combine the influencing factors closely related to the predicted measurement x i As an input quantity, predict the expected value y i As the output quantity, through the nonlinear mapping Mapping from the input space to the high-dimensional feature space, the nonlinear relationship is expressed as:

[0035]

[0036] Data point set (x i ,y i ),i=1,...,l,x i ∈ R d ,y i ∈R, d is the dimension of the selected input variable, l is the total number of known data points, the weight vector ω∈R d , deviation b∈R, is a nonlinear mapping from the input space to the high-dimensional feature space. The quadratic norm of the error is selected as the loss function. According to the principle of risk minimization, the LS-SVM optimization model can be expressed as:

[0037]

[0038] In the formula, e i is the error, e∈R l×1 Is the erro...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a temperature prediction method of high voltage cable joints. The method comprises the steps of (1) adopting environmental temperature, environmental humidity, a current ratio of a cover layer and a cable core, and previous temperature values of a cable joint as an inputted training samples, and building a joint temperature prediction model based on a least squares support vector machine; (2) adopting particle swarm optimization to dynamically seek an optimum from a regularization parameter C and a standardized parameter sigma of the least squares support vector machine, and forming a joint temperature prediction model based on the particle swarm optimization and the least squares support vector machine; (3) conducting temperature prediction according to the joint temperature prediction model based on the particle swarm optimization and the least squares support vector machine, the real-time environmental temperature, the environmental humidity, the current ratio of the cover layer and the cable core, and the previous temperature values of the cable joint, and obtaining a predicted value of the high voltage cable temperature. Compared with the existing technology, the temperature prediction method of high voltage cable joints has the advantages of high flexibility, high prediction accuracy, pretty fast training speed and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of high-voltage power cables, in particular to a method for predicting the temperature of a high-voltage cable joint. Background technique [0002] The power cable transmission system can not only beautify the appearance of the city, but also greatly save urban land resources, fully meeting the needs of resource conservation and environmental friendliness. Power cables are widely used in urban power grids, and the demand is growing rapidly. The weak link of the cable system is the cable joint. Field operation experience shows that more than 90% of cable failures occur at the cable joint. Defects inside the cable joint will cause the electric field to concentrate and the local temperature to rise. If it exceeds 137°C, the insulation medium of the power cable will undergo electro-thermal breakdown, which will seriously affect the safe and reliable operation of the power grid. The temperature of the joint can well refl...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00G06N3/00G06K9/62
CPCG06N3/006G16Z99/00G06F18/2411
Inventor 王媚何邦乐赵杰张伟周利军叶頲顾黄晶吴辰斌何荷刘君华
Owner SHANGHAI MUNICIPAL ELECTRIC POWER CO
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