Highway travel time prediction system and prediction method

Abstract

The invention provides a highway travel time prediction system. The system comprises a database, a K-value determination unit, and a travel time predicted value determination unit; the database is used for saving travel times of vehicles completely passing through a target highway and a traffic condition data association list; the K-value determination unit searches K travel times which are closest to the current traffic condition from training data, regards an average value of the K travel times as a training predicted value Ft (K) of the travel times of the target highway, calculates a MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) value of the travel time corresponding to each K value in sequence according to the formula (1), and regards the K value with the minimum MAPE value as a K determination value for predicting the travel time, wherein K value is increased from 3; and the travel time predicted value determination unit determines an average value of K-determination-value travel times which are closest to the current traffic condition in the training data as a travel time predicted value. Compared with the prior art, according to the scheme of the system and method, visualization and simplicity are realized, and the prediction precision is high.

Description

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AI Technical Summary

Benefits of technology

This technology uses past journey times from vehicles on specific roads or lanes during different stages of road construction to make it easier than traditional methods like calculating distance between points along the route based solely upon their speed.

Problems solved by technology

This patented technical problem addressed in this patents relates to accurately estimating the arrival times or departures during transit vehicles passing over different roads within one metropolitan area without being affected negatively due to factors like weather patterns and other variables affecting their movement. Existing methodologies have limitations because they require long periods of time before reaching certain points along the way, making them unreliable when needed again later.

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