Determination method and system, and forecast method and system for probability of causing ash haze of coastal region by tropical cyclone

Abstract

The invention provides a determination method and system, and a forecast method and system for a probability of causing ash haze of a coastal region by tropical cyclones. The determination method comprises the steps of collecting tropical cyclone path point data with influence on the visibility of a to-be-tested region, and visibility and relative humidity data of the to-be-tested region in a corresponding time; performing classification on the tropical cyclone path point data according to the intensities to obtain various types of tropical cyclone path point data; and dividing a prediction range of the to-be-tested region into a plurality of intervals, reserving a path point of a same tropical cyclone in the intervals for the tropical cyclone under each intensity, calculating the probability of causing the ash haze of the to-be-tested region by the tropical cyclone in the intervals according to the reserved path point data and the visibility data of the corresponding to-be-tested region, and performing interpolation operation according to longitude and latitude of a predetermined position in the intervals and the probability of causing the ash haze of the to-be-tested region by the tropical cyclone under each intensity in the intervals, thereby obtaining probability distribution of causing the ash haze of the to-be-tested region by the tropical cyclones under all the intensities. According to the determination method and system, and the forecast method and system, a reliable basis can be provided for weather predicting and alarming of influence of the tropical cyclones on the ash haze.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of analysis and measurement control, and in particular relates to a method and system for determining the probability of haze in coastal areas caused by tropical cyclones, and a forecast method and system. Background technique [0002] The meteorological definition of haze is a collection of a large number of tiny dust particles, smoke particles or salt particles suspended in the atmosphere. When the relative humidity of the atmosphere is less than 80%, the horizontal visibility is reduced to below 10 kilometers. When haze occurs, outdoor visibility is low, pollution continues, traffic jams, and accidents occur frequently. Haze not only affects people's normal life, but also poses a huge threat to human health. Years of research have shown that during the movement of tropical cyclones, the peripheral downdraft will have a significant impact on the surrounding meteorological conditions, including visibility,...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The present invention provides a method and system for determining and forecasting the probability of haze in coastal areas caused by tropical cyclones, which is used to solve the problem that the forecast of haze in coastal areas caused by tropical cyclones in the prior art depends on the experience of forecasters, mainly based on qualitative analysis, and is easy Leading to inaccurate analysis, there is currently no effective and objective forecasting method available for operational forecasting in my country

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