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Grey correlation analysis-based improved fireworks algorithm mid-long term load prediction method

A technology of gray relational degree and fireworks algorithm, which is applied in prediction, calculation, instrumentation, etc., can solve problems such as low solution efficiency and slow algorithm convergence speed, and achieve the goal of improving solution accuracy and solution efficiency, accuracy and applicability Effect

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-05-10
CHINA THREE GORGES UNIV
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

In the existing methods, Ant Colony Algorithm (ACO) and Particle Swarm Algorithm (PSO) are used to solve gray model parameters respectively. Although the problem of prediction accuracy has been solved to a large extent, it is found that the convergence speed of the algorithm is relatively slow. Solving efficiency is generally not high and other shortcomings

Method used

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  • Grey correlation analysis-based improved fireworks algorithm mid-long term load prediction method
  • Grey correlation analysis-based improved fireworks algorithm mid-long term load prediction method
  • Grey correlation analysis-based improved fireworks algorithm mid-long term load prediction method

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Experimental program
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Embodiment

[0127] The present invention takes the measured line load data of a power grid in a certain area of ​​Sichuan from 2004 to 2015 as a sample, and performs calculation example simulation in the Matlab environment. The historical load data from 2004 to 2009 is used to predict the load from 2010 to 2015, and the prediction effect of each model is verified by comparing the predicted value with the actual value.

[0128] Quantitative evaluation of the accuracy and reliability of prediction results is an important part of prediction effect analysis. A variety of predictive indicators are commonly used to evaluate the forecast results, and the present invention mainly adopts the following methods:

[0129] In order to reduce the impact of singular values ​​in the original data column on the prediction results, the three-point smoothing method is used to preprocess the historical load data from 2004 to 2009, and the processing results are shown in Table 1.

[0130] Table 1 Raw load da...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a grey correlation analysis-based improved fireworks algorithm for carrying out optimization calculation on model parameters, which belongs to the technical field of mid-long term load prediction. The method comprises steps: 1, a GM (1,1) model is built; 2, through one cumulative iteration, a non-negative sequence is processed to generate a modeling sequence; 3, one cumulative sequence is used for building a first-order linear whitening differential equation; 4, a prediction result model is deduced; 5, through inverse accumulated generating operation, a prediction model Y <(0)> for X <(0)> is obtained; and 6, a grey model parameter solution method based on the improved fireworks algorithm is brought forward. The modeling process is practical and simple, the grey algorithm parameters can be quickly and effectively solved, and the mid-long term load prediction precision is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention proposes an improved firework algorithm based on gray relational degree analysis to optimize calculation of model parameters, and belongs to the technical field of medium and long-term load forecasting. Background technique [0002] With the accelerated construction of the smart grid and the continuous access of various new energy sources to the grid, the safe and economic operation of the distribution network is facing serious challenges. Scientific distribution network construction is the most effective and fundamental means to solve the problem. Medium- and long-term load forecasting is an important support for distribution network planning and construction. The accuracy and reliability of its forecasting are the hotspots and difficulties of current research. , while the power grid is a typical gray system, gray theory has been widely used in medium and long-term load forecasting. [0003] Medium and long-term load forecasting has the...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 杨楠叶迪李宏圣黄禹董邦天
Owner CHINA THREE GORGES UNIV
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