Time sequence analysis based optical transmission network trend prediction method

Abstract

The invention discloses a time sequence analysis based optical transmission network trend prediction method, which specifically comprises the steps that 1) network management performance parameters are screened, and network management performance parameters capable of reflecting the network running state are selected; 2) network management performance data is acquired, and specified network management performance data is acquired through a northbound interface of the optical transmission network for network management; 3) a time sequence is formed, the network management performance data is acquired in an uninterrupted manner in a sampling period, and the network management performance data is arranged into a time sequence of a certain performance parameter feature value according to a certain time interval; 4) the time sequence is decomposed, and a trend term, a periodic term and a stochastic term in the time sequence are decomposed through analyzing a time sequence sample; 5) predicted values of the decomposed terms are calculated, and the predicted values are estimated according to respective prediction models in allusion to the three different types of decomposed terms; and 6) a final predicted value is calculated, and the final predicted value is calculated according to a time sequence addition model and performs cross validation with an actual value.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the research on the trend prediction model of the optical transmission network based on the time series analysis, in particular to a method for predicting the trend of the optical transmission network based on the time series analysis. It belongs to the technical field of power communication. Background technique [0002] The real-time diagnosis of the operating status of the power communication network is directly related to the safe and stable operation of the power system. With the comprehensive advancement of the smart grid of electric power enterprises and the "three collections and five majors" system, more and more power grid operation control services and enterprise management information services need to be transmitted through the power communication network, making the power system increasingly dependent on the communication network. A single point of failure in the communication network may have an adverse effect on...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] In order to solve the practical problem that the traditional power communication network lacks effective diagnostic means for those performance information with no obvious symptoms and hidden dangers, the present invention starts with the performance parameters representing the network operation status provided by the professional network management system, and uses probability theory and Based on mathematical statistics theory and based on the basic theory and method of time series analysis, by constructing a network trend prediction model, the operating status of the communication network can be accurately predicted, thereby providing technical support for the active maintenance mode based on equipment condition maintenance

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