Safety check method for day-ahead planning considering the uncertainty distribution of new energy power

Abstract

The invention discloses a day-ahead plan safety checking method considering power distribution nondeterminacy of new energy.The method comprises the steps that the checking date is determined, the distribution probability density function of the power generation power of wind power, photovoltaics and other new energy at the 96 time frame within the interval of 15 minutes of the day is acquired, power generation power sampling is carried out according to the distribution probability density function of the new energy at the 96 time frame, tide section samples are formed, the section of each sample is subjected to safety checking and analyzing, the tide section samples are collected to obtain a safety checking and analyzing result, and probability distribution of electric transmission line power transmission is obtained; the probability of heavy loading and threshold crossing of equipment at the 96 time frame is analyzed, and the operation dangerous points of a day-head plan of a power grid are given.By the adoption of the method, the influence of the nondeterminacy factors of the wind power and the photovoltaics can be considered, the operation risks of the transmission equipment are quantitatively analyzed according to the probability distribution characteristic of the power generation power of the wind power and the photovoltaics, the lean level of safety checking of the day-ahead plan is improved, and a foundation is laid for improving the operation safety and economical efficiency of the power grid.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a day-ahead plan security check method considering the uncertainty distribution of new energy power, and belongs to the technical field of security check analysis of power system power generation plans. Background technique [0002] Safety check analysis is required in the process of plan preparation, through forward-looking power flow calculations, to analyze the safety status of the power grid in the future planned operation mode, and to improve the ability to prevent and control the safety risks of the power grid. In the day-ahead plan safety check, the lines and transformers operating beyond the thermally stable power limit, as well as the sections exceeding the transmission stability limit, need to be eliminated by adjusting the power generation plan, or remind the dispatcher to focus on real-time operation. [0003] During the safety check calculation of the current plan, it is necessary to form the power flow section of ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] In recent years, new energy represented by wind power and photovoltaics has developed rapidly. Compared with conventional power sources (thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, gas power, etc.), large-scale grid-connected new energy has intermittent, volatile, and incomplete predictability. Such uncertainty increases the uncertainty of the power grid's expected power flow, and it is difficult for operators to effectively perceive and prevent potential operating risks of the power grid, which increases the pressure on power grid operation. The power value of the new energy power generation plan is analyzed, and the information on the dangerous points of the power grid is one-sided

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