Novel modeling method for extracting random and fuzzy uncertainty characteristics of wind speed

Abstract

The invention belongs to the wind modeling technical field and relates to a modeling method considering that wind speed has randomness and fuzziness double-uncertainty characteristics. The method includes the following steps that: 1) quality evaluation and basic processing are performed on original data; 2) wind speed probability distribution characteristics are extracted from actually measured wind speed data at a specific area, a probability distribution model which is suitable for fitting actually measured wind speed is analyzed and determined; (3) the fuzzy uncertainty characteristic and membership function characteristic of wind speed probability distribution parameters are extracted and analyzed; and 4) procedures and steps for generating simulation wind speed based on random fuzzy simulation technology and inverse transformation method simulation are rendered. The method of the invention not only covers traditional wind speed probability uncertainty characteristics, but also considers the objective reality that wind speed is not clear in limited wind speed data fitting, and can depict multiple uncertain characteristics of wind speed more comprehensively and provide corresponding guidance for power generation plan arrangement and scheduling operation mode adjustment of a large-scale wind power connected power system in the future.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of wind speed modeling, and proposes a new modeling method for extracting random fuzzy and uncertain features of wind speed. Background technique [0002] The modeling and prediction of uncertain characteristics of wind speed is the basic work for the adjustment of large-scale wind power integration power system power generation planning and dispatching operation mode. How to effectively predict and construct wind speed and wind turbine output power uncertainty models is related to issues such as wind power grid-connected consumption, power quality, optimal control, and safe operation of the entire grid. With the access of wind power, the impact of wind speed on the power system is becoming more and more important. The uncertain characteristics of its power generation, such as intermittent, randomness, and volatility, are difficult to change due to human factors. Data mining of wind speed data , combining r...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] In fact, randomness and fuzziness coexist in the uncertain characteristics of wind speed. Traditional wind speed uncertainty models are generally described by random variables or fuzzy variables. Due to the limitation of statistical data, it is difficult to obtain clear probability distribution parameters in the cognitive sense, which is fuzzy. Therefore, it is more in line with objective reality to describe wind speed with random fuzzy variables, and random variables and fuzzy variables are in essence special cases of random fuzzy variables.

In the existing technology, there are relatively few studies on wind speed uncertainty related theory and modeling analysis that comprehensively consider randomness and ambiguity. This theoretical system still needs to be continuously supplemented and improved.

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