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Bayesian network based electrical network risk early-warning evaluation model

A Bayesian network and risk early warning technology, applied in the direction of specific mathematical models, probability networks, calculation models, etc., can solve the problems of difficult grid voltage control, high operational risk, and many grid transition modes and special modes.

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-05-25
STATE GRID XINJIANG ELECTRIC POWER CORP +2
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In recent years, the construction of power grid has accelerated, and the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaics has grown rapidly. It is difficult to control the power flow and voltage of the power grid. There are many accompanying shutdown equipment for infrastructure, users, and power engineering construction.

Method used

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  • Bayesian network based electrical network risk early-warning evaluation model
  • Bayesian network based electrical network risk early-warning evaluation model
  • Bayesian network based electrical network risk early-warning evaluation model

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Embodiment Construction

[0032] Taking the subsystem composed of f1 and f7 main feeders in the RBTS bus 4 of the IEEE test system as an example, Bayesian network modeling is carried out on it to assess the risk level and find out weak links. Branch line protection, backup power, transformer backup, circuit breakers and fuses are completely reliable.

[0033] The failure probability formula (10) of each section of the line in the first component level (component level); for the transformer component, since there is a backup, the calculation of the failure probability of each transformer is different from the line failure probability, see formula (11) , where λ j Indicates the failure rate of the jth transformer, r pj Indicates the replacement time of the jth transformer.

[0034] P(L i =1)=L i lambda i r i / 8760

[0035] P(T j =1)=λ j r pj / 8760

[0036] In the formula, L i Indicates the length of line i; λ i Indicates the failure rate of line i; r i Indicates the repair time of line i. ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to an evaluation model for evaluating the operation risk of the electrical network on the basis of a Bayesian network modeling method, and belongs to the technical field of scheduling automation of the power system. The method comprises that (1) a Bayesian formula based network model is established; and (2) the risk early-warning evaluation index and model are calculated. The evaluation model has the advantages that the electrical network risk early-warning evaluation model is based on the Bayesian network, the Bayesian network model has unique bidirectional inference technology, the operation risk of the electrical network is evaluated, influence of components on the operation risk of the electric network can be analyzed, weak links of the system are obtained, requirements for risk early-warning evaluation and analysis in practical electrical network service are met, and basis is provided for improvement of the system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of electric power system dispatching automation, and in particular relates to an evaluation model for evaluating the operation risk of a power grid based on a Bayesian network modeling method. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of social economy and the increase of electricity consumption, the safe operation of power grid has become more and more important. The nationwide closely connected network, high-efficiency large-capacity units (groups), and the adoption of ultra-high voltage levels have improved the quality and efficiency of electric energy. But it also brings severe challenges to the safe operation of the power grid. In order to ensure the safe operation of the power grid, formulating appropriate risk evaluation indicators and performing quantitative evaluation have increasingly become the focus of research at home and abroad. [0003] In recent years, power grid construction...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q50/06G06N7/00
CPCG06Q50/06G06N7/01
Inventor 白静洁晏青刘琪杨永利殷智宋明曙武毅朱清徐家慧蔡鹏程
Owner STATE GRID XINJIANG ELECTRIC POWER CORP
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