Pre-severe precipitation disaster risk prediction method

Abstract

The invention discloses a pre-severe precipitation disaster risk prediction method. According to the method, a meteorological data unit used for calculating disaster-inducing factors of disasters, a monitoring data unit used for disaster-inducing factor climate background analysis, disaster process similarity fitting and disaster prediction model computation, and a comparison and analysis unit used for disaster impact assessment and early warning are adopted; the disaster-inducing factors of the disasters which are obtained through analysis on meteorological data can provide a basic monitoring direction for the monitoring data unit; the disaster-inducing factor background, historical similar disasters and disaster prediction information can be calculated through analysis of monitored data; disaster impact assessment information can be obtained through disaster prediction model computation, so that comprehensive contrastive analysis of the disasters can be realized; and accurate severe precipitation disaster early warning information can be obtained. With the pre-severe precipitation disaster risk prediction method adopted, post-disaster loss can reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a pre-disaster risk estimation method, in particular to a pre-disaster risk estimation method for heavy rainfall. Background technique [0002] Under the background of global warming, extreme meteorological disasters such as rainstorms, floods, droughts, blizzards, high temperature heat waves, and low temperature damage are becoming more and more frequent, causing huge losses to the national economy and people's lives and property, and have attracted widespread attention from governments at all levels and the people. Among these major meteorological disasters, the impact of heavy precipitation is extremely prominent. Disasters caused by heavy precipitation account for as high as 40% of the disaster-causing meteorological events in my country, and they are the most serious meteorological disasters in the country. Every year, the direct economic losses caused by extreme weather are as high as hundreds of billions of yuan, especia...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

At present, my country's pre-disaster risk assessment of heavy rainfall and floods is still in the initial stage of exploration, and a complete and mature assessment system has not yet been formed for the prediction of heavy rainfall and pre-disaster risks, especially in Sichuan Province, where the terrain is complex and the weather There are many changes, and it is more difficult to predict heavy rainfall and floods

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