Real-time predicting method for arrival time of bus

Abstract

The invention relates to a real-time predicting method for arrival time of a bus. The real-time predicting method comprises the following steps: S1, respectively extracting historical floating bus data and historical running time data of a site section between every two adjacent sites as a training set, screening factors influencing the running time of the bus at one site section according to the training set, and respectively constructing support vector regression models of corresponding site sections according to the screened factors; S2, determining site sections contained in a running route between a current site and a target site of the bus, acquiring respective real-time floating bus data and real-time running time data of the site sections as a predicting set, predicting the running time of the bus at the site section by using the support vector regression model according to the predicting set, and obtaining the arrival time of the bus from the current site to the target site according to the predicted running time of the bus at each site on the running route. According to the method provided by the invention, the prediction accuracy of the arrival time of the bus can be improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of traffic, and more specifically, to a method for real-time prediction of bus arrival time. Background technique [0002] Bus arrival time information is an important part of Advanced Public Transportation System (ATPS). Timely and accurate prediction of bus arrival time can greatly improve the quality of public transport operations and passenger satisfaction. It can not only enable the transportation department to adjust the dispatching system in time to improve service quality, but passengers can also adjust their itineraries in time, thereby reducing Waiting time and anxiety during waiting. [0003] The arrival time of the bus can be decomposed into two parts, one part is the stop time of the bus at the platform, and the other part is the travel time of the bus between the platforms. In the currently established public transportation intelligent system, the estimated arrival time of the next bus displa...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0007] Most of the studies mentioned above are based on research experience to select various influencing factors that affect bus travel time, lacking a relatively scientific process of selecting influencing factors, although based on experience, it is possible to select factors that have a greater impact on bus travel time However, some factors with very small or even negative effects will be introduced at the same time to prolong the running time of the algorithm, and the factors that have a greater impact on the running time of the bus may be ignored, so it is impossible to find the best The set of influencing factors is used for bus arrival time prediction

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