Short-term Risk Judgment Method of Power System Considering Disaster Factors

Abstract

The invention relates to a power system short-term risk determination method taking disaster factors into account and belongs to the field of power system reliability and risk analysis. The method comprises the steps: geographically dividing regions where disasters causing power system transmission line failure are distributed (disaster regions for short, e.g. regions of lightning strokes, ice disasters, bird hazards and the like); establishing a corresponding relationship between power transmission devices and the disaster regions according to positions of the power transmission devices of a power system and the geographical distribution of the disaster regions; calculating the conditional failure rate of the power transmission devices located in the disaster regions when the disasters occur through carrying out statistics on historical failure of the power transmission devices of the power system and reasons for the historical failure; determining the power outage risk of the power system in a future short term by using power system risk assessment techniques according to weather forecast information and the conditional failure rate of the power transmission devices. By using the method, potential power outage accidents of the power system under disaster weather are warned, and maintenance plans and operating modes for the power system are arranged reasonably, so that large-scale power outage accidents of the power system are prevented.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of reliability and risk analysis of power systems, and particularly relates to a short-term risk determination method for power systems considering disaster factors. Background technique [0002] With the continuous expansion of the scale of grid interconnection, the power resources have been further optimized, but the reliable operation of the grid has ushered in new challenges. At the beginning of 2008, affected by the continuous low temperature, ice and snow disasters occurred in many provinces and regions in southern my country, causing 36,740 power lines of 10kV and above and 2016 substations of 35kV and above to be out of service nationwide, and towers of 10kV and above collapsed and damaged. 310,321 bases, causing more than 33.48 million households (about 110 million people) to lose power and direct economic losses of 151.65 billion yuan. These power outages have had a great impact on economic development and s...

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Problems solved by technology

[0010] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the deficiency that disaster factors cannot be considered in detail in the existing power system risk assessment, and provide a short-term risk judgment method of power system considering the impact of disaster factors, which can standardize consideration of lightning strikes, ice disasters, bird damage, etc. The impact of various disasters on transmission line faults can help power system dispatchers to accurately identify the short-term operation risk level of the power system in the next week to a few weeks based on forecast information such as weather forecasts, and can give early warning of potential power outages in the power system in time, and then It can be used to arrange the maintenance plan and operation mode of the power system to ensure the safe and reliable operation of the power grid

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