Spacecraft health evaluation method based on profust reliability theory

Abstract

The invention discloses a spacecraft health evaluation method based on the profust reliability theory. The spacecraft health evaluation method includes seven steps that firstly, space division of the operation state of a spacecraft is performed; secondly, the state transition probability matrix computing method of the spacecraft is designed; thirdly, the stability probability computing method of the spacecraft is designed; fourthly, the profust reliability estimating method of the spacecraft is designed; fifthly, the determining method of the health level of the spacecraft is designed; sixthly, the computing method of the average vague fault time of the spacecraft is designed; seventhly, entering the design ending stage is performed. Calculation is performed with the profust reliability theory, the profust reliability, the health level and the average vague fault time of the spacecraft are obtained, and in-orbit health management of the spacecraft is supported. The spacecraft health evaluation method based on the profust reliability theory has good practical value and wide application prospects in the technical field of health management of the spacecraft.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a spacecraft health evaluation method based on a profust reliability theory, which is related to the evaluation of the operating state of the spacecraft and belongs to the technical field of spacecraft health management. Background technique [0002] The in-orbit operation of spacecraft requires a comprehensive health management system to monitor it, detect faults in real time, and formulate reasonable solutions in time to maximize the normal operation of spacecraft in orbit and prolong the life of spacecraft in orbit. This field has been focused on by domestic and foreign aerospace circles, and has become the main research direction in the aerospace circles. [0003] The health management of spacecraft in orbit is faced with the following four problems: [0004] (1) The amount of failure data of the spacecraft is relatively small; [0005] (2) The spacecraft system is complex, and its performance and reliability are sometime...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] (2) The spacecraft system is complex, and its performance and reliability are sometimes described in the form of qualitative information such as expert experience, and this description itself is ambiguous;

[0006] (3) The operating state of the spacecraft cannot be described by the two states of "normal" and "failure", and the system can be degraded;

[0007] (4) The spacecraft is composed of many subsystems, complete machines, components and components, and at the same time, it is affected by human factors and environmental factors, which brings great difficulties to the modeling and analysis of the system with high reliability

This has resulted in the limitation of the application of the rate-modulus reliability theory in the field of spacecraft health management.

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