Dynamic combination analysis method of new energy generating capacity influenced by meteorological information

Abstract

The invention discloses a dynamic combination analysis method of new energy generating capacity influenced by meteorological information in the field of application intersection of energy-saving economic dispatch of a power grid and computer artificial intelligence. The method comprises the following steps of: firstly, carrying out data pre-processing; secondly, dividing the actually-measured data of historic records or weather predictions into a plurality of sample sets according to different terrain heights, wherein each sample set provides initial weight distribution; thirdly, training thedifferent sample sets by using a particle swarm algorithm and a plurality of learning algorithms to generate a plurality of analysis models, wherein the particle swarm algorithm is used for automatically optimizing algorithm parameters, and each learning algorithm adjusts the weight distribution of samples in the corresponding sample set according to accuracy; fourthly, increasing weights so as to highlight large-error samples, otherwise, decreasing the weights; fifthly, adjusting the weights among the respective learning algorithms according to the calculation accuracy of each model, decreasing the weights of large-error models, otherwise, increasing the weights; and finally, forecasting according to a plurality of training models which are generated finally and the weight distribution among the plurality of training models.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the interdisciplinary field of power grid energy-saving economic dispatching and computer artificial intelligence application, and in particular relates to a method for dynamic combination analysis of new energy generation capacity influenced by meteorological information. Background technique [0002] The new energy power generation capacity analysis method affected by weather information involved in this application is mainly aimed at the analysis of the output capacity of wind farms in the next few hours to several days. When the wind farm is connected to the power system as a power source, the randomness, volatility and intermittency of wind power itself will have a greater impact on the power system with the expansion of capacity. If the short-term output of wind power cannot be accurately analyzed, it is necessary to reserve a reserve capacity equivalent to the wind power capacity in the power system for peak regulation. ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0006] The purpose of the present invention is to propose a dynamic combined analysis method of new energy power generation capacity affected by meteorological information, aiming at the low accuracy of the currently widely used short-term wind power output analysis system. Compose multiple samples according to different geographical heights, and dynamically adjust the weights of these samples and multiple or multiple regression algorithms at the same time, and finally use the combination model of multiple learning machines to make predictions, thereby enhancing the generalization ability and prediction accuracy of the system

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