Regional new energy ultra-short-term power prediction method and system

A power prediction and new energy technology, applied in prediction, neural learning methods, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of increasing difficulty of prediction and decreasing accuracy of power prediction, and achieve the effect of improving prediction accuracy

Pending Publication Date: 2022-07-29
NANJING NARI WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER TECH CO LTD
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Problems solved by technology

The input data for ultra-short-term regional new energy power prediction is the previous measured power, meteorological information or weather forecast, and station predicted power. No matter which method or input data is used, the power prediction accuracy usually decreases with the extension of the forecast length, because The longer the forecast time, the smaller the impact of the current measured information on it, and the difficulty of forecasting will increase

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  • Regional new energy ultra-short-term power prediction method and system

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Embodiment 1

[0037] like figure 1 As shown, a regional new energy ultra-short-term power prediction method includes the following steps:

[0038] Step 1. Determine the new energy station with the highest correlation with the actual power generation in the area to be predicted

[0039] Select the actual power generation data of each new energy station in the last two months at the current time point and the actual power generation data of the entire area, and construct the actual generation power sequence of each new energy station and the entire area to be tested at 15-minute intervals. The actual power generation sequence, each sequence is equivalent to a one-dimensional array. For example, the data of a certain station for 2 hours can form a one-dimensional array of 8 elements. The value of each element is the actual power generation within the 15 minutes. Power average. In addition, there are N+1-dimensional arrays in the area to be tested. In order to remove the influence of differen...

Embodiment 2

[0051] The present invention also provides a new energy ultra-short-term power prediction system, including:

[0052] The new energy station determination module is used to determine the new energy station with the highest correlation between the actual power generation and the actual power generation in the area to be predicted;

[0053] The prediction data acquisition module is used to obtain the historical power prediction data of the preliminary prediction of the most relevant new energy stations;

[0054] The forecast sequence building module is used to extract the power generation forecast data of the last forecast period in each forecast period from the preliminary forecast historical power generation forecast data, and use the data to construct a new energy power forecast sequence;

[0055] The prediction model building module is used to train the prediction model with the new energy power prediction sequence and the historical measured data of the area to be predicted...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a regional new energy ultra-short-term power prediction method. The method comprises the following steps: determining a new energy station with the highest correlation between the actual generated power and the actual generated power of a to-be-predicted region; acquiring historical power generation power prediction data preliminarily predicted by the new energy station with the highest correlation; extracting power generation power prediction data of the last prediction period in each prediction period from the preliminarily predicted historical power generation power prediction data, and constructing a new energy power prediction sequence according to the data; training the prediction model according to the new energy power prediction sequence and historical measured data of the to-be-predicted region in the same time period; and predicting the future generation power data of the to-be-predicted region by using the trained prediction model. The ultra-short-term new energy power prediction method can accurately predict the ultra-short-term new energy power.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of new energy power prediction, and in particular relates to a method and system for regional new energy ultra-short-term power prediction. Background technique [0002] As one of the basic systems for grid-connected new energy power plants, the new energy power prediction system is the main reference means for the grid dispatch management department to formulate grid-connected power generation plans. The operation of the power generation power prediction system will affect the grid-connected power generation of new energy power plants. At the same time, it directly affects the dispatching strategy of the grid company. With my country's "dual carbon" goal and the tight power market, the assessment accuracy of new energy power generation consumption has gradually improved. The new national standard GB / T40607-2021 "Dispatching Side Wind Power or Photovoltaic Power Prediction System Technology" requires regiona...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06K9/62G06N3/04G06N3/08H02J3/00
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06N3/049G06N3/08H02J3/004G06N3/044G06F18/23G06F18/2411
Inventor 李春红王峰王建平沈笛王剑高熠飞
Owner NANJING NARI WATER RESOURCES & HYDROPOWER TECH CO LTD
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