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Short-term climate prediction method based on statistical downscaling technology

A prediction method and downscaling technique, applied in the field of atmospheric science

Active Publication Date: 2021-08-06
国家气候中心
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  • Abstract
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  • Claims
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a short-term climate prediction method based on statistical downscaling technology, thereby solving the aforementioned problems in the prior art

Method used

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  • Short-term climate prediction method based on statistical downscaling technology
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  • Short-term climate prediction method based on statistical downscaling technology

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Embodiment 1

[0032] Such as figure 1 As shown, this embodiment provides a short-term climate prediction method based on statistical downscaling technology, including the following steps,

[0033] S1. During the fitting period of the modeling, carry out singular value decomposition on my country's monthly average precipitation and large-scale predictors. Through this singular value decomposition calculation, the two variables of my country's monthly average precipitation and large-scale predictors are respectively extracted. Typical coupled spatially heterogeneous correlation distribution spatial types of principal modes and corresponding principal component time series pairs;

[0034] S2. Carry out continuous monthly rolling modeling of monthly average precipitation and large-scale predictors; use stepwise regression analysis to obtain the typical coupling spatial heterogeneity of the adaptive main mode of monthly average precipitation and large-scale predictors suitable for the forecast pe...

Embodiment 2

[0055] Such as figure 2 with image 3 As shown, in this embodiment, using the prediction method provided by the present invention, the Chinese site ( figure 2 ) and grid points ( image 3 ) for statistical downscaling prediction of summer precipitation in 2018. compared with figure 2 There are some missing predictions based on site data in image 3 The medium prediction results are distributed in all regions of the country including the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

[0056] By adopting the above-mentioned technical scheme disclosed by the present invention, the following beneficial effects are obtained:

[0057] The invention provides a short-term climate prediction method based on statistical downscaling technology, which integrates climate models and key factors in the early stage, and extracts the optimal coupling variation among various factors based on various processing methods such as EOF, SVD, and multiple linear regression, and develops The multi-source information...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a short-term climate prediction method based on a statistical downscaling technology. The method comprises the steps of carrying out the singular value decomposition of a monthly average rainfall and a large-scale prediction factor in China in a fitting time period of modeling; respectively extracting a main mode typical coupling space anisotropic correlation distribution space type and a corresponding main component time sequence pair of the monthly average rainfall and the large-scale predictive factor in China; utilizing a stepwise regression analysis method to obtain a self-adaptive principal mode typical coupling space anisotropic correlation distribution type and a principal component time sequence pair of monthly average rainfall and a large-scale prediction factor suitable for a prediction time period. The method has the advantages that the optimal coupling variation type among multiple factors is extracted based on multiple processing methods such as EOF, SVD and multiple linear regression by integrating climate modes and early-stage key factors, the multi-source information dynamic processing and extraction technology is developed, the optimal information integration self-adaptive downscaling technology is constructed, and the grid prediction of the average rainfall close to the month under the climate conditions of different regions in the whole country is realized.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of atmospheric science, in particular to a short-term climate prediction method based on statistical downscaling technology. Background technique [0002] Short-term climate prediction methods are mainly divided into numerical model methods and physical statistics methods. As far as climate models are concerned, they have high predictive ability for large-scale circulation, but low predictive ability for precipitation in East Asia, which cannot meet actual needs. ENSO Existing in the tropical Pacific Ocean, it is an important system of air-sea interaction and one of the important driving forces of global weather and climate interannual changes. Premonitory signal. Therefore, it is feasible to use the stability of large-scale predictors of climate models to statistically downscale forecasts of fine-scale seasonal mean precipitation. The selection of forecasting techniques and predictors is the key and difficulty i...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10G06F30/20G06Q10/04
CPCG01W1/10G06Q10/04G06F30/20
Inventor 刘颖任宏利吴捷武于洁
Owner 国家气候中心
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