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A Short-term Climate Prediction Method Based on Statistical Downscaling Technology

A prediction method and downscaling technique, applied in the field of atmospheric science

Active Publication Date: 2021-10-26
国家气候中心
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  • Abstract
  • Description
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  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a short-term climate prediction method based on statistical downscaling technology, thereby solving the aforementioned problems in the prior art

Method used

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  • A Short-term Climate Prediction Method Based on Statistical Downscaling Technology
  • A Short-term Climate Prediction Method Based on Statistical Downscaling Technology
  • A Short-term Climate Prediction Method Based on Statistical Downscaling Technology

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Embodiment 1

[0032] Such as figure 1 As shown, this embodiment provides a short-term climate prediction method based on statistical downscaling technology, including the following steps,

[0033] S1. During the fitting period of the modeling, carry out singular value decomposition on my country's monthly average precipitation and large-scale predictors. Through this singular value decomposition calculation, the two variables of my country's monthly average precipitation and large-scale predictors are respectively extracted. Typical coupled spatially heterogeneous correlation distribution spatial types of principal modes and corresponding principal component time series pairs;

[0034] S2. Carry out continuous monthly rolling modeling of monthly average precipitation and large-scale predictors; use stepwise regression analysis to obtain the typical coupling spatial heterogeneity of the adaptive main mode of monthly average precipitation and large-scale predictors suitable for the forecast pe...

Embodiment 2

[0055] Such as figure 2 with image 3 As shown, in this embodiment, using the prediction method provided by the present invention, the Chinese site ( figure 2 ) and grid points ( image 3 ) for statistical downscaling prediction of summer precipitation in 2018. compared with figure 2 There are some missing predictions based on site data in image 3 The medium prediction results are distributed in all regions of the country including the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

[0056] By adopting the above-mentioned technical scheme disclosed by the present invention, the following beneficial effects are obtained:

[0057] The invention provides a short-term climate prediction method based on statistical downscaling technology, which integrates climate models and key factors in the early stage, and extracts the optimal coupling variation among various factors based on various processing methods such as EOF, SVD, and multiple linear regression, and develops The multi-source information...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a short-term climate prediction method based on statistical downscaling technology, which includes performing singular value decomposition on my country's monthly average precipitation and large-scale predictors within the modeling fitting period, and extracting my country's monthly average precipitation and large-scale forecasting factors respectively. The main modes of the scale predictors are typically coupled with spatially heterogeneous correlation distribution spatial patterns and the corresponding principal component time series pairs; using stepwise regression analysis, the adaptive main modes of the monthly mean precipitation and large-scale predictors suitable for the forecast period are obtained. Modal typical coupled spatially heterogeneous correlation profiles and principal component time series pairs. The advantages are: integrated climate model and previous key factors, based on multiple processing methods such as EOF, SVD and multiple linear regression to extract the optimal coupling variation among multiple factors, developed multi-source information dynamic processing and extraction technology, and constructed optimal information Integrating self-adaptive downscaling technology to realize the gridded prediction of the monthly average precipitation in different regions of the country under the climatic conditions.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of atmospheric science, in particular to a short-term climate prediction method based on statistical downscaling technology. Background technique [0002] Short-term climate prediction methods are mainly divided into numerical model methods and physical statistics methods. As far as climate models are concerned, they have high predictive ability for large-scale circulation, but low predictive ability for precipitation in East Asia, which cannot meet actual needs. ENSO Existing in the tropical Pacific Ocean, it is an important system of air-sea interaction and one of the important driving forces of global weather and climate interannual changes. Premonitory signal. Therefore, it is feasible to use the stability of large-scale predictors of climate models to statistically downscale forecasts of fine-scale seasonal mean precipitation. The selection of forecasting techniques and predictors is the key and difficulty i...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10G06F30/20G06Q10/04
CPCG01W1/10G06Q10/04G06F30/20
Inventor 刘颖任宏利吴捷武于洁
Owner 国家气候中心
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