Looking for breakthrough ideas for innovation challenges? Try Patsnap Eureka!

A Highway Accident Frequency Prediction Method Considering Time-varying Characteristics of Risk Factors

A technology for risk factors and accidents, applied in forecasting, traffic flow detection, traffic control systems for road vehicles, etc., can solve the problems of shortening the driver's visual distance, rear-end collision, increased risk of lane-changing accidents, and high occupancy rate, achieving improved The effect of classification accuracy, reducing the number of non-accidents, and improving prediction accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2021-11-19
HEFEI UNIV OF TECH
View PDF5 Cites 0 Cited by
  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the time-varying characteristics of the above factors have a significant impact on accident risk
Compared with non-peak hours, the road traffic volume during peak hours is large, the occupancy rate is high, and the vehicle speed is low. Reduced visibility for the driver, increased braking distance and increased risk of accidents
To sum up, the traditional accident frequency prediction model cannot accurately describe the influence of time-varying characteristics of factors on accident risk, resulting in inaccurate prediction of road accident frequency.

Method used

the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
View more

Image

Smart Image Click on the blue labels to locate them in the text.
Viewing Examples
Smart Image
  • A Highway Accident Frequency Prediction Method Considering Time-varying Characteristics of Risk Factors
  • A Highway Accident Frequency Prediction Method Considering Time-varying Characteristics of Risk Factors
  • A Highway Accident Frequency Prediction Method Considering Time-varying Characteristics of Risk Factors

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment Construction

[0057] In this example, if figure 1 As shown, a road accident frequency prediction method considering the time-varying characteristics of risk factors, taking the I-880 highway in California, USA as an example, proceeds as follows:

[0058] Step 1. Collect and process historical traffic accident data and related risk factor data;

[0059] Step 1.1, carry out section division to I-880 highway, according to the section division method of the same nature, promptly have the same section of lane number and the section of plane alignment to be divided into the same section, divide the road into K homogeneous section; In addition, if divide If there is a road segment less than 0.1 mile in the road segment, the road segment is merged into the adjacent road segment with the highest similarity, and finally, the I-880 highway is divided into 174 homogeneous road segments;

[0060] Step 1.2, establish a training set;

[0061] Step 1.2.1, in the traffic accident database, obtain the hist...

the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
Login to View More

PUM

No PUM Login to View More

Abstract

The invention discloses a road accident frequency prediction method considering the time-varying characteristics of risk factors. The steps are as follows: 1. Collect and process historical traffic accident data and related risk factor data; 2. Establish a Logistic regression model; 3. Use Youden Calculate the classification threshold of the Logistic model by the index method; 4. Calculate the positive predictive value (Positive predictive value) and negative predictive value (Negative predictive value) of the model based on the Logistic model and historical accident data; 5. Use the calculated positive predictive value and The negative predictive value is used to predict the frequency of accidents. The invention can overcome the problem that the traditional accident frequency model cannot reflect the influence of time-varying characteristics of risk factors on accidents, and is beneficial to improving the prediction accuracy of the accident frequency prediction method.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting the frequency of road accidents considering the time-varying characteristics of risk factors, and belongs to the technical field of road traffic safety analysis. Background technique [0002] Constructing the relationship between the frequency of traffic accidents and risk factors such as road geometric characteristics, traffic conditions, and weather, so as to predict the frequency of accidents, is a common method for road safety evaluation. In the traditional accident frequency prediction model, since the dependent variable is the total number of accidents in a long time range (such as one year), for time-varying risk factors such as traffic conditions and weather, only statistical indicators within the corresponding time range can be used ( Such as annual average daily traffic volume, total annual rainfall) as independent variables. However, the time-varying characteristics of the above factors have ...

Claims

the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
Login to View More

Application Information

Patent Timeline
no application Login to View More
Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G08G1/01G06Q10/04G06Q50/26G06Q50/30
CPCG08G1/0104G08G1/0125G06Q10/04G06Q50/26G06Q50/40
Inventor 陈一锴于淑君石琴王飞董满生
Owner HEFEI UNIV OF TECH
Who we serve
  • R&D Engineer
  • R&D Manager
  • IP Professional
Why Patsnap Eureka
  • Industry Leading Data Capabilities
  • Powerful AI technology
  • Patent DNA Extraction
Social media
Patsnap Eureka Blog
Learn More
PatSnap group products

Browse by: Latest US Patents, China's latest patents, Technical Efficacy Thesaurus, Application Domain, Technology Topic, Popular Technical Reports.

© 2024 PatSnap. All rights reserved.Legal|Privacy policy|Modern Slavery Act Transparency Statement|Sitemap|About US| Contact US: help@patsnap.com