Design flood uncertainty analysis method based on hyper-quantitative flood time-varying characteristics

Abstract

The invention discloses a design flood uncertainty analysis method based on hyper-quantitative flood time-varying characteristics. The method mainly comprises the following steps: constructing a super-quantitative flood series POT by adopting a flood peak sequence under a threshold value; establishing dynamic correlation between flood elements and physical influence factors by taking a basin waterand soil conservation area as a covariable, carrying out time-varying flood frequency analysis to deduce a design flood value in a specified recurrence period, and calculating an uncertainty influence interval of the human activity factors on the ultra-quantitative series design flood values in the specified recurrence period by combining an uncertainty analysis technology. According to the method, by constructing a flood ultra-quantitative series, the defect that the number of flood samples in a design flood calculation method based on an annual maximum AM series is small is overcome; by introducing the watershed water and soil conservation area, the reason causing the POT flood sequence time-varying property can be explained, the reliability of a time-varying property design flood result is improved, and support is provided for watershed flood control planning, scheduling and management.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of hydrological uncertainty analysis, in particular to a design flood uncertainty analysis method based on the time-varying nature of over-quantitative floods. Background technique [0002] Design flood uncertainty analysis technology is an important means of basin water resources planning and operation management. It analyzes and calculates the degree of credibility of the design flood value corresponding to the specified design standard in the sense of probability. [0003] The basic assumption of traditional flood frequency analysis is that the measured flood data are consistent. From the perspective of physical causes, the consistency assumption requires that the climatic conditions and underlying surface conditions for generating flood sample sequences are relatively stable during the flood data observation period and the design period of the hydraulic projects to be constructed in the future. However,...

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Problems solved by technology

However, due to the influence of climate change and human activities, the assumption of consistency is challenged, and the reliability of the design results obtained by traditional frequency calculation methods is questioned. How to expand the amount of flood sample information becomes the key to improving the accuracy of time-varying flood frequency analysis question

[0004] Current research on watershed design floods under changing environmental conditions often fails to comprehensively consider the impact of human activity factors and the variability of flood occurrence times in a year on the uncertainty of time-varying design floods

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