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Markov model construction simplification method and system applied to complex system

A complex system and model technology, applied in the field of Markov model construction, can solve problems such as combinatorial explosions, and achieve the effects of solving explosions, reducing the number of states, and simplifying the Markov model

Inactive Publication Date: 2021-01-05
NUCLEAR POWER INSTITUTE OF CHINA
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] In order to solve the problem of combinatorial explosions when building Markov models for existing complex systems, such as nuclear power plant DCS platforms, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a simplified method and system for building Markov models applied to complex systems

Method used

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  • Markov model construction simplification method and system applied to complex system
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  • Markov model construction simplification method and system applied to complex system

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Embodiment 1

[0032] Embodiment 1: A simplified method for constructing a Markov model applied to a complex system, comprising the following steps:

[0033] Step 1: If figure 1 As shown, when analyzing the complex system, it is found that the complex system in this embodiment is a nuclear power plant DCS system. During the actual operation of the system, different devices have the same impact on the system variables under the same failure mode, and have the same impact on the next level ( system) has the same effect. In the process of establishing the Markov model in the past, it is necessary to establish the state transition for different failure modes of each board. Therefore, the traditional Markov model often has the problem of combinatorial explosion. In the present invention, this situation can be simplified by analyzing the state of the equipment or system, dividing the equipment as a whole according to the influence of its external system, and merging the states that affect the sam...

Embodiment 2

[0045] Embodiment 2: A Markov model construction simplification system applied to complex systems, including a state confirmation module and a simplified merging module. The state confirmation module is used to detect the states in the Markov model, and form a simplified state group after screening states with the same transition rate. The simplified merging module is used to merge and simplify the member states in the simplified state group into one state by adding the entry rate and keeping the exit rate constant.

Embodiment 3

[0046] Embodiment 3: A simplified method for constructing a Markov model applied to a complex system. This embodiment uses a 1oo2 (1 out of 2) architecture as an example for illustration.

[0047] Such as figure 2 As shown, the 1oo2 architecture consists of two channels connected in parallel, either of which can perform the security function. The demand-time safety function fails if and only if a dangerous failure occurs in both channels.

[0048] Such as image 3 As shown, according to the 1oo2 system architecture, the system model is established according to the traditional Markov model, and the Markov model is obtained, and the corresponding state transition matrix P0 can be obtained, where P0 is an 8-order state transition matrix, specifically:

[0049]

[0050] right image 3 The traditional 1oo2 architecture Markov model analysis shown shows that state 1 and state 3 have the same transition rate, that is, the probability of entering state 1 and state 3 is the same...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a Markov model construction simplification method and a system applied to a complex system, relates to the technical field of Markov model construction, and solves the problemof combined explosion during Markov model construction of an existing complex system. The scheme key points comprise steps: detecting the states in the Markov model; screening out the states with thesame transfer rate to form a simplified state group; and merging and simplifying the member states in the simplified state group into one state according to the principle that the entry rate is addedand the exit rate is kept unchanged. According to the Markov model simplification method provided by the invention, before simplification, the equipment state needs to be divided, the equipment is used as a whole, division is carried out according to the influence condition of an external system, and the states with the same or similar influence are merged; in the Markov model building process, the state number can be greatly reduced, and the built Markov model is simplified.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of Markov model construction, more specifically, it relates to a simplified method and system for Markov model construction applied to complex systems. Background technique [0002] The Markov model uses the Markov chain to represent the state transition diagram of the system. If the model is established completely, then the Markov model can fully express all the normal states of the system, all the degraded states of the system and the failure states of the system. The probability of transitioning from one state to another in a Markov model depends only on the current state of the system and has nothing to do with its historical state. The characteristics of the Markov model determine that it can not only clearly express the state transition of each state of the system under a certain condition, but also clearly reflect that the system is currently in a state of degraded function. Effective repair treatme...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06N7/00G06K9/62
CPCG06N7/01G06F18/295
Inventor 张庆马权刘明星许标吴礼银王远兵
Owner NUCLEAR POWER INSTITUTE OF CHINA
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