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Power transmission line icing occurrence probability prediction method

A technology of probability of occurrence and transmission lines, applied in weather forecasting, meteorology, measuring devices, etc., can solve the problems of lack of representativeness and guidance in the forecast of transmission line icing, and no systematic objective method, so as to improve the forecast The effect of accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2020-12-22
EXAMING & EXPERIMENTAL CENT OF ULTRAHIGH VOLTAGE POWER TRANSMISSION COMPANY CHINA SOUTHEN POWER GRID
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Problems solved by technology

There is no systematic objective method to summarize these subjective weather situation analysis, which is mostly individual cases, and it lacks representativeness and guidance for transmission line icing forecast

Method used

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  • Power transmission line icing occurrence probability prediction method
  • Power transmission line icing occurrence probability prediction method
  • Power transmission line icing occurrence probability prediction method

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Embodiment

[0045] The technical solutions of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0046] refer to figure 1 As shown, this embodiment provides a method for forecasting the occurrence probability of icing on transmission lines, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0047] Step A: Using the latest generation of reanalysis data ERA5 atmospheric space three-dimensional multivariable and time-continuous grid point data, through T-mode principal component analysis (T-PCA), according to the circulation field of the middle and lower troposphere according to the regional grid point data Classify weather. In this example, the 850hPa geopotential height field in the daily three-dimensional spatial grid points of the troposphere to stratosphere atmosphere in East Asia during the winter (December to January and February) during 2014-2018 is used to classify, and the number of classifications is explained by...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a power transmission line icing occurrence probability prediction method, which comprises the steps of obtaining atmospheric space three-dimensional multivariable and time continuous grid point data, performing analysis by adopting a T-mode principal component analysis method, and performing weather classification according to circulation fields of the middle and lower layers of a troposphere of regional grid point data; and performing synthetic analysis by combining different types of atmospheric circulation of each day in a region needing to be forecasted in winter ina certain period of time to obtain a conceptual model of weather circulation situation typing. The method can objectively predict the icing probability, does not depend on the subjective consciousness of business personnel, improves the prediction accuracy of icing, facilitates the understanding of the weather characteristics of icing in scientific research and business application, and providesa scientific and technological support for the prediction of icing of a power transmission line.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to weather forecast technology, in particular to a method for forecasting the occurrence probability of icing on transmission lines. Background technique [0002] Icing has always been a serious meteorological disaster for transmission lines in southern China, directly threatening the operation and maintenance of transmission lines. The icing process is not only controlled by the weather situation (cold wave in the north and water vapor in the south) and altitude, but also affected by various factors such as local meteorological elements. [0003] From January 10 to February 2, 2008, there was a continuous large-scale low-temperature rain, snow and freezing disaster weather process in southern my country. Many scholars have analyzed the cause of this process. Strong, the northerly guiding airflow in front of the ridge transports cold air to the south, and the southwest airflow in front of the trough transports water vapor to the n...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10G01W1/02
CPCG01W1/10G01W1/02
Inventor 张厚荣王奇常安苏浩辉陈彦州赖光霖韩玉康郑扬亮尚佳宁郑文坚崔曼帝陈浩高志球杨元建宗莲
Owner EXAMING & EXPERIMENTAL CENT OF ULTRAHIGH VOLTAGE POWER TRANSMISSION COMPANY CHINA SOUTHEN POWER GRID
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