Ecological flow determination method combining probability density and guarantee rate

Abstract

The invention relates to an ecological flow determination method combining probability density and guarantee rate, and the method comprises the steps of collecting daily flow data of many years, and carrying out the arrangement to obtain a daily runoff frequency curve of 12 months; using an adaptive kernel density function method, taking the flow at the position with the maximum probability density as the optimal flow of the month, and obtaining the annual optimal ecological flow process; determining a month-by-month suitable ecological flow lower threshold value and a year-round suitable ecological flow lower threshold value flow process; and determining a month-by-month suitable ecological flow upper threshold and a year-round suitable ecological flow upper threshold flow process. The invention provides the ecological flow determination method combining the probability density and the guarantee rate for the first time; the calculation result can guarantee that the designed ecologicalflow can reflect the annual and seasonal change process, meanwhile, the method adapts to the aquatic organism requirement and the human society water requirement, the balance between river health andsocial water is maintained to the maximum extent, and the method has certain use and popularization value.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of ecological flow formulation and environmental protection, in particular to a method for determining ecological flow combining probability density and guarantee rate. Background technique [0002] At present, there are more than 200 kinds of ecological flow calculation methods at home and abroad, which can be divided into several categories such as hydrological method, hydraulic method, habitat method and overall analysis method. Among them, the hydrological method is widely used because of its simple data type and easy calculation. According to the "nature-society" dual water cycle theory, the change of water flow in the river course is not only affected by the boundary of natural environment such as climate change, but also related to the increasing behavior of human beings to take water. , There is a contradiction between water needs for life. However, the current ecological flow determination rarely ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, current ecological flow determinations rarely correlate with the extent of human exploitation

At the same time, hydrological methods (such as Tennant method, monthly frequency method, etc.) are too subjective and empirical for the delineation of ecological grade standards, and the establishment of ecological flow is more focused on the consideration of aquatic organisms and natural hydrological conditions. Ecological management objectives balance human society's water needs

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