Method for predicting heavy metal toxicity endpoint and marine water quality reference threshold value

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting a heavy metal toxicity endpoint and a marine water quality reference threshold value. The method comprises the steps of establishing a multivariable quantitative structure-toxicity correlation prediction model based on heavy metal structure parameters and marine environment physicochemical element characteristics influencing the metal form, so that prediction of the in-situ toxicity value of marine heavy metal is achieved; further performing species sensitivity analysis (SSD) on the toxicity prediction value of representative aquatic organisms inthe ocean to obtain a reference threshold for protecting 95% of marine organisms; and fitting the SSD curve by using a Sigmoldal-Logistic model, and carrying out multivariate correlation analysis onthe basis of curve fitting parameters and independent variables in the toxicity prediction model. According to the method, a species sensitivity analysis universal model based on heavy metal structures and environmental element characteristics is established, reference thresholds of heavy metals in different marine environments are customized, and the problem that a prediction result is inaccuratedue to neglect of the influence of hydrochemical characteristics on toxicity is solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of heavy metal biological effects and risk assessment in the marine environment, specifically a method for predicting heavy metal toxicity endpoints and marine water quality benchmark thresholds based on the form and biological effectiveness of heavy metals. Background technique [0002] Quantitative structure-activity correlation (QSAR) theory has made important progress and has been widely used in the structure-activity relationship and toxicity prediction of organic pollutants. The quantitative structure-activity relationship research of metals began in the 1970s and 1980s. However, due to the complexity of metal morphology and biological effects, related research has encountered bottlenecks, which is also a difficulty and challenge in the field of metal toxicity prediction. For example, it is difficult to obtain structural descriptors that effectively reflect the toxicity mechanism, which restricts the application...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] In general, the above methods only consider the quantitative relationship between the structural characteristics of metal ions and toxicity in the marine environment, ignoring the influence of the char

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