Method for calculating extreme value wind speed in ultra-long recurrence period

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for calculating extreme value wind speed in an ultra-long recurrence period. The invention aims to provide the method for calculating the extreme value wind speed inthe ultra-long recurrence period, so that the calculation result is more stable and reliable. According to the technical scheme, the method for calculating the extreme value wind speed in the ultra-long recurrence period is characterized in that an area within a certain radius range with a calculation point as the circle center serves as a target area; tropical cyclones influencing the target areaare selected, and historical data of the selected tropical cyclones are obtained; the position of the central point of the selected tropical cyclone is found out when the wind speed of the calculation point in the target area is maximum, and the position is called as an original sample point; and the parameters of the tropical cyclone are calculated at the moment, including the central air pressure difference, the cyclone moving speed, the maximum wind speed radius, the minimum distance from the calculation point to the tropical cyclone path and the direction angle. The method is suitable forcalculating the extreme value wind speed of the ultra-long recurrence period in coastal, offshore or offshore areas with large tropical cyclone influence.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a calculation method of an extreme value wind speed with a super-long return period. It is applicable to the calculation of the extreme wind speed with a very long return period in the coastal, near sea or far sea areas with great influence of tropical cyclones. Background technique [0002] Typhoons can cause strong winds, huge waves, storm surges, floods, etc., and are one of the most basic and serious factors causing natural disasters. Reasonable design standards can effectively avoid or mitigate natural disasters. Due to climate change and typhoon intensification, typhoon disasters have occurred frequently in recent years, and the design standards of marine structures need to be improved urgently. In marine engineering, the extreme value of environmental elements within a certain return period (that is, once in N years) is generally used as the design standard, and the design return period of some major infrastructures re...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

This method can be applied in conventional design criteria (return period within 200 years), but when the return period is long (such as 1,000, 10,000 years or longer), the method does not affect the type of distribution function It is relatively sensitive and has a large statistical uncertainty, which makes the calculated results unstable and inaccurate, and cannot be applied in marine engineering

Images