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Numerical and statistical modeling method for medical intervention

A statistical modeling, numerical technique, applied in the field of numerical and statistical modeling of medical interventions, that can address issues such as underestimating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of recommendation strategies

Pending Publication Date: 2020-05-26
陈晨
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Depending on how these two factors interact (and other factors such as duration of protection), models assuming (unrealistic) recommended ages for uptake may overestimate or underestimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of recommended strategies

Method used

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  • Numerical and statistical modeling method for medical intervention
  • Numerical and statistical modeling method for medical intervention
  • Numerical and statistical modeling method for medical intervention

Examples

Experimental program
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Embodiment Construction

[0015] A multi-cohort Markov model was constructed using a one-year cycle length to assess the (hypothetical) cost-effectiveness of the PCV13 immunization schedule against the unvaccinated. A key reason for using a multi-cohort model (rather than a single-cohort model) is the need to track adults who were vaccinated at different ages. The cost-effectiveness analysis simulated uptake using two different modeling approaches: assuming it matched the observed (PPV23) uptake data by age (observed uptake), or assuming that all vaccinations occurred at the initial recommended age (recommended vaccinations) , as many other published studies apply, and then compare the differences in disease and economic outcomes between the two vaccination methods. The analysis was conducted from a healthcare payer perspective, including all relevant healthcare utilization costs, with all costs and consequences in the model discounted at an annualized rate of 5%.

[0016] The multi-cohort model follo...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a numerical and statistical modeling method for medical intervention. The method discusses the use of more realistic observation of the impact of vaccination distribution to formulate more effective vaccine policy suggestions. With the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) as an example, the method discusses the timeliness and outcome of vaccination. One dose ofPCV13 is recommended to adults more than 65 years old recently so as to replace the existing 23-valence pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) plan. The suggestion to the 65 age is consistent with that of most other developed countries.

Description

【Technical field】 [0001] The invention relates to the field of medical prediction, in particular to a numerical and statistical modeling method of medical intervention. 【Background technique】 [0002] Most economic evaluations of adult vaccination programs assume that vaccines are administered at the specific ages proposed in the future schedule. However, some people will get vaccinated earlier than this recommended age, and much later than this. For example, while the U.S. recommends shingles vaccination for people over the age of 65, people 75 and older are 2.5 times more likely to receive the zos vaccine than people 60 to 75. Similarly, data from Spain showed that pneumococcal vaccine intake was 30% higher among people over 75 than among those aged 65 to 74, despite funding from 65. For vaccines intended to provide long-term protection, such as herpes zoster and pneumococcus, the questions regarding the delay in recommendation relative to the initial age at recommendati...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G16H50/80
CPCG16H50/80
Inventor 陈晨
Owner 陈晨
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