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Early risk situation analysis method for epidemic situation of infectious disease based on input-diffusion function

A diffusion function and infectious disease technology, which is applied in the field of early risk situation analysis of infectious disease epidemics based on input-diffusion functions, can solve problems such as limiting model accuracy and application range, ignoring spatio-temporal dynamic information changes, etc., to achieve effective decision support, Quickly and accurately monitor the effect

Active Publication Date: 2020-04-24
GUANGZHOU INST OF GEOGRAPHY GUANGDONG ACAD OF SCI
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Problems solved by technology

The spatio-temporal spread of infectious diseases reflects the dynamic process of the game between humans and infectious diseases. The traditional trend judgment technical path is based on a variety of assumptions, and the parameters are set as constants, ignoring the spatio-temporal dynamic information in the process of disease transmission Changes, which limit the accuracy and application range of the model in the actual application process

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  • Early risk situation analysis method for epidemic situation of infectious disease based on input-diffusion function
  • Early risk situation analysis method for epidemic situation of infectious disease based on input-diffusion function
  • Early risk situation analysis method for epidemic situation of infectious disease based on input-diffusion function

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Embodiment 1

[0055] The present invention will be further elaborated below in conjunction with a specific embodiment. In this embodiment, the data of COVID-19 in Guangdong Province from January 19, 2020 to February 3, 2020 are used for simulation and judgment.

[0056] The first step is to identify the scale of infectious disease input risk sources.

[0057] Since Hubei Province and Wuhan City are the hardest-hit areas of the epidemic, the calculation object in this embodiment is mainly for Hubei Province, and the calculation date is February 3, 2020. According to the current consensus in various epidemiological fields, the period from the incubation period to onset of COVID-19 is 7-14 days on average, and 7 days are taken in this example. The first case in Guangdong Province was on January 19, 2020. Therefore, the total number of people who came to Guangdong Province from Wuhan and Hubei Province (excluding Wuhan) from January 12, 2020 to February 3, 2020 were collected respectively. and...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an early epidemic risk situation analysis method for an infectious disease based on an input-diffusion function, which comprises the steps of 1, identifying the scale of an infectious disease input risk source; 2, simulating a risk source propagation spread function; and 3, conducting short-term forecasting on the epidemic risk situation. According to the invention, population flow big data trend judgment and disease propagation and diffusion rules are fused; firstly, the morbidity differences of different regions are explored in the spatial dimension to describe the disease distribution pattern, and the inter-regional population flow scale and trend are analyzed based on population flow big data; then, the potential input risk case scale is measured and calculatedbased on the population flow; the function relationship between the number of potential input cases and the number of locally accumulatively diagnosed cases is counted; and the epidemic situation development characteristics and internal rules are revealed. The development of the epidemic situation is simply, rapidly and accurately monitored, the epidemic risk development situation in the future ispre-judged, and more accurate, more durable and more effective decision support can be provided for prevention and control of infectious diseases.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of spatial epidemiology and public health emergency decision-making, and in particular relates to an early risk situation analysis method of an infectious disease epidemic based on an input-diffusion function. Background technique [0002] Major infectious diseases have become major public health events that threaten public safety and social stability. How to quickly, accurately, and quantitatively assess the stage of the epidemic, the effects of control measures, and predict future trends has become a challenge for the government, the scientific community, and the public. Great and urgent tasks ahead. In the early stage of a new infectious disease outbreak, it is very important to grasp the risk development trend of infectious diseases, especially the effective estimation of the epidemic situation over time is the key to epidemic prevention. Accurately grasping the epidemic dynamics is the basis for changing from pas...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G16H50/80
CPCG16H50/80
Inventor 宫清华刘博文杨骥邓应斌严滢伟叶玉瑶
Owner GUANGZHOU INST OF GEOGRAPHY GUANGDONG ACAD OF SCI
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