A Calculation Method for Risk Priority Number Analysis of Complex System Considering Weight and Correlation

Abstract

The invention discloses a risk priority number analysis and calculation method of a complex system considering weight and correlation. The invention determines the structure of the system and the failure modes of components by analyzing the composition and function of the system; determines the minimum cut set of the system; according to the analysis The goal and the basic principle of AHP draw the system hierarchical structure diagram; single-level sorting, determine the weight of risk factors S, O, D on the highest level; single-level sorting, respectively determine the minimum cut set at the bottom level and the middle level S, O , the weight of D; the level total ordering of the risk priority number of the minimum cut set; the risk analysis results are sorted from large to small, and are used to guide product analysis and design. The present invention uses AHP and pairwise comparison methods to solve each At the same time, the Copula function is used to model the correlation of the bottom event, which reduces the error caused by the independence assumption, so that the obtained results are more reasonable and reliable.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the fields of reliability engineering and risk analysis, and in particular relates to a method for analyzing and calculating complex system risk priority numbers considering weight and correlation. [0002] technical background [0003] With the rapid development of science and technology, equipment and systems are becoming larger, more complex and more intelligent. Reliable and safe operation of equipment and systems is very important. Once a failure occurs, it will lead to varying degrees of economic losses and cause heavy casualties. Therefore, the evaluation of the reliability and safety of large equipment and complex systems is extremely important. There are a variety of system reliability and risk analysis and evaluation methods, such as FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis), FTA (Fault Tree Analysis), RPN (Risk Priority Number), etc. Among them, FMEA is to analyze the potential failure modes of each component unit of ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

At present, the Copula function has been widely used in the fields of finance and hydrology, and its effectiveness has been widely proved. However, the Copula function is relatively rare in the analysis and calculation of risk priority numbers.

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