A multi-small hydropower area short-term power load prediction method based on time-sharing partition meteorological data

Abstract

A multi-small hydropower station area short-term power load prediction method based on time-sharing zoning meteorological data is characterized by comprising the following steps of 1, analyzing smallhydropower station output data of all counties / districts and rainfall data of the counties / districts corresponding to the counties / districts, and studying the characteristics of radial-flow type smallhydropower stations; 2, further researching the accumulation and hysteresis caused by the output of the small hydropower station, and determining a correlation coefficient equation of the small hydropower station; And 3, proposing a small hydropower load prediction method, firstly predicting a base value, predicting a per-unit load curve according to a rainfall mode and load similarity principle,and finally obtaining a small hydropower load prediction curve. The invention aims to provide a short-term power load prediction method which introduces refined meteorological prediction data such astime-sharing subarea air temperature and rainfall according to the characteristics of small hydropower stations, analyzes the load characteristics of the small hydropower stations and can effectivelyimprove the precision and automation degree of short-term load prediction of multiple small hydropower stations.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of infrastructure engineering, and in particular relates to a short-term power load forecasting method in a multi-small hydropower area based on time-division and divisional meteorological data. Background technique [0002] Today, as the grid continues to grow in size and power input diversifies, the share of renewable energy is increasing. For example, hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic and bio-power generation, etc., but their disadvantages are also obvious, all of which lie in the uncontrollable power generation, which increases the difficulty of load forecasting. For hydropower generation, which ranks second among renewable energy sources, it is widely used due to its advantages of low investment, short cycle, simple maintenance, and stable electricity price. In some areas with abundant water resources, the generation capacity of small hydropower is very abundant, which can not only meet the local load, but al...

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Problems solved by technology

Patent document CN106548285A discloses a wholesale electricity forecasting method considering the output of small hydropower. Processing model, establishment of meteorological discrimination model, establishment of small hydropower output forecasting model, establishment of whole society electricity consumption forecasting model, establishment of regional wholesale electricity forecasting model, and completion of wholesale electricity forecasting of small hydropower output; although the above patents have considered seasonal However, refined meteorological forecast data such as temperature and rainfall in time divisions and regions are not introduced into the prediction of small hydropower output. The unit capacity of each hydropower station is different, and the same rainfall brings different power generation to each hydropower station.

And it does not consider the time lag of small hydropower generation load on rainfall and the cumulative effect of small hydropower generation load

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