A cloud layer tracking technology independent of equipment and an intra-hour irradiance prediction method

Abstract

The invention relates to a photovoltaic power station irradiance prediction technology, particularly relates to a cloud layer tracking technology independent of equipment and an intra-hour irradianceprediction method. The method comprises the steps of firstly, a correlation matrix of cloud layers and weather types is established through historical data to represent most possible cloud layer typesunder different weather types and give out calculation expressions of ten different cloud type light transmittances, so that a corresponding relation of the different cloud type light transmittancesunder different weather conditions is established; secondly, representing the degree of irradiance attenuation caused by cloud layer shielding through the ratio of the irradiance measured value to theclear sky horizontal slope radiation model, and predicting shielding degrees at different moments according to the historical shielding degree and the cloud layer moving speed and direction, whereinthe irradiance actual measurement value comes from a real-time automatic meteorological monitoring station of the photovoltaic power station, and the clear sky horizontal inclined plane irradiance model can be obtained according to different geographic positions and related meteorological parameters, so that high dependence on observation equipment is overcome.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of irradiance prediction of photovoltaic power plants, and in particular relates to a cloud layer tracking technology independent of equipment and an hourly irradiance prediction method. Background technique [0002] Due to the non-renewability of traditional fossil fuels and the environmental pollution and climate change problems caused by the use of fossil fuels, renewable energy such as wind energy and solar energy has been favored due to its advantages of no pollution emissions, no fuel consumption, and flexible application forms. Supported by policies from all over the world, it has achieved large-scale application on a global scale. As of the end of 2015, the cumulative installed capacity of solar power generation in the world reached 230GW, and the new installed capacity in that year exceeded 53GW, accounting for 20% of the new installed capacity in the world; from 2006 to 2015, the average annual gro...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Although the above prediction methods have a certain temporal and spatial resolution, they only consider several specific cloud types, and do not consider the difference in light transmittance of different cloud types under different weather conditions, which lacks certain comprehensiveness.

Another disadvantage of the above prediction method is that it is highly dependent on observational equipment (such as pyranometers, ceilometers, and sky cameras, etc.), making its application difficult

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