Human factor reliability balance method for risk maintenance decision optimization of deepwater riser system

Abstract

The invention discloses a human factor reliability balance method for risk maintenance decision-making optimization of a deepwater riser system. The deep-sea platform SCR segment is used as a risk maintenance decision-making unit; the maintenance decision-making unit is selected for risk identification; the unit transient failure probability analysis is carried out, and simultaneously Failure probability analysis of overload stress fracture under extreme environmental load, failure probability analysis of overload fatigue fracture under extreme environmental load and failure probability analysis of upper section external corrosion; risk analysis of unit failure consequence assessment; back calculation of unit maintenance period; based on human reliability Optimization of group maintenance strategy by balance method. The beneficial effect of the invention is that the sum of three kinds of human error probabilities and the comparison with the maximum acceptable human error probability are used as the judging criterion for maintenance grouping, and the maintenance grouping is performed on the units sorted according to the maintenance cycle, so as to realize the risk maintenance strategy of the riser Optimization.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of deep-sea exploration, and relates to a human-factor reliability balance method for risk maintenance decision optimization of a deep-water riser system. Background technique [0002] Deep sea platform steel catenary riser (abbreviated as SCR—Steel Catenary Riser), as an important component connecting submarine oil and gas resources and sea surface oil and gas storage and transportation devices, is one of the most severe service environments for deep sea platform devices. Environmental loads with a large degree of time-varying and uncertainties, such as deep-sea internal waves, deformed waves, typhoons and typhoon waves, will become important factors that threaten the safe operation of risers. At the same time, the high-temperature and high-pressure oil and gas and other working medium loads inside the SCR of the deep-sea platform also have a great destructive effect on the riser. Under the action of these...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, there are many risk factors affecting the destruction and failure of deep-sea platform SCR during operation, and they are random and fuzzy, which makes it difficult to accurately evaluate the safety of deep-sea platform SCR system by using conventional methods such as model tests or numerical simulations.

The traditional safety assessment method represented by reliability analysis has been unable to adapt to the deep-sea platform SCR due to the neglect of the potential failure risk of the deep-sea platform SCR system and the inability to measure the impact of the potential risk into an actual disaster accident. System security assessment requirements

Images