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Copula function-based flood double-variable improved joint return period ascertaining method

A return period, double variable technology, applied in the direction of climate change adaptation, electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, etc., can solve the problem of unreasonable division of double variable return period dangerous areas, to improve the fitting accuracy, Choose a reasonable effect

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-04-17
HOHAI UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Purpose of the invention: Aiming at the problems and deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention proposes a flood bivariate improved joint

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  • Copula function-based flood double-variable improved joint return period ascertaining method

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Embodiment Construction

[0033] Below in conjunction with specific embodiment, further illustrate the present invention, should be understood that these embodiments are only used to illustrate the present invention and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, after having read the present invention, those skilled in the art will understand various equivalent forms of the present invention All modifications fall within the scope defined by the appended claims of the present application.

[0034] Such as figure 1 As shown, below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and embodiment the embodiment of the present invention is described in further detail:

[0035] Step 1: Determine two characteristic variables that describe the flood in a certain area;

[0036] The variables that characterize the characteristics of floods include characteristic variables such as flood peak, flood volume, and water level. According to regional characteristics, two variables that best reflect the char...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a Copula function-based flood double-variable improved joint return period ascertaining method. The method comprises the following specific steps of: 1, determining two featurevariables for expressing flood of a certain region; 2, determining a probability statistics model for the feature variables for expressing the flood of the certain region; 3, determining a Copular model for the selected two feature variables of the certain region; 4, calculating a flood double-variable joint return period; 5, deducing a flood double-variable joint return period-based improved joint return period ascertaining method; and 6, verifying effectiveness of the new method. According to the method, the influences of double-variable integral manner in double-variable flood frequency calculation process are considered, so that the influences, on determination of reasonable dangerous regions, of the traditional double-variable integral manner are avoided; the improved joint return period ascertaining method is improved on a joint return period, so that the dangerous region and the integral manner are re-defined, and the method is effective for any Copula function; and the new method is capable of more correctly describing flood dangerous regions, and has wider applicability.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a flood bivariate improved joint return period derivation method based on Copula function, specifically by establishing a Copula model between flood characteristic bivariate, taking the joint return period equivalence curve as a benchmark, Reasonable risk areas are defined to derive ways to improve the joint return period. Background technique [0002] Hydrological frequency analysis is the basis of hydraulic engineering design and planning. At present, hydrological frequency analysis is mostly univariate frequency analysis, but because hydrological events have the attribute of multiple characteristic variables, it is biased to analyze only from a single perspective. The traditional multivariate frequency analysis requires the marginal distribution of variables to be of the same type, and the joint distribution solution is relatively complicated, which limits its application in hydrology. Sklar proposed the Copula the...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
CPCG06F30/20Y02A10/40
Inventor 方国华晋恬闻昕吕琳莉颜敏张宇虹
Owner HOHAI UNIV
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