Photovoltaic output 2D section prediction method based on fuzzy rule

Abstract

A photovoltaic output 2D section prediction method based on fuzzy rules comprises the following steps: 1, inputting local electric and meteorology data of a to-be-predicted photovoltaic power generation system, and inputting internet meteorology data; 2, preprocessing various types of data of the inputted data; 3, obtaining the sunny inclined surface global radiation intensity of a to-be-predicted date, and using same to correct the power data of a power sunny model; 4, building a lasting 2D section prediction model; 5, building a 2D section prediction vector, and building a support vector regression 2D section prediction model; 6, building a first fuzzy rule, and using the built fuzzy membership function to modify the lasting 2D section prediction model and the support vector regression 2D section prediction model combined coefficient; 7, building a second fuzzy rule, and adjusting the deviations of the2D section prediction result according to the rules. The method can effectively predict the 2D section, and the prediction result is high in credibility.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a 2D interval prediction method for photovoltaic output based on fuzzy rules, which mainly includes a persistent 2D interval prediction model for photovoltaic output, a support vector regression machine 2D interval prediction model and an optimization method using double fuzzy strategies. Background technique [0002] Distributed photovoltaic power generation technology has huge commercial value and will play a major role in the future power system. Due to the randomness, intermittentness and volatility of photovoltaic output, it cannot be easily accepted by the power system. Forecasting technology is one of the effective solutions, but most of the current forecasting methods focus on the forecasting of point power. Due to the complex factors affecting photovoltaic output, the current domestic weather forecast system serving photovoltaics is not perfect, and the prediction accuracy is limited, which is often difficult to meet t...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In order to overcome the shortcomings of the inability to realize accurate and effective 2D interval prediction methods in the prior art, the present invention provides a 2D interval prediction method for photovoltaic output based on fuzzy rules, which is actually effective in predicting 2D intervals and has high reliability of results.

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