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Regional distributed photovoltaic output prediction method based on satellite cloud picture

A distributed photovoltaic and satellite cloud map technology, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as the inability to achieve regional distributed photovoltaic output forecasting, and achieve the effects of reducing rotating reserve capacity, reducing costs, and improving accuracy.

Active Publication Date: 2017-05-31
ZHEJIANG UNIV OF TECH
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In order to overcome the inability to realize regional distributed photovoltaic output prediction in the prior art, the present invention provides a regional distributed photovoltaic output prediction method based on satellite cloud images with high prediction accuracy and high efficiency

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  • Regional distributed photovoltaic output prediction method based on satellite cloud picture
  • Regional distributed photovoltaic output prediction method based on satellite cloud picture
  • Regional distributed photovoltaic output prediction method based on satellite cloud picture

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Embodiment Construction

[0061] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0062] refer to Figure 1 ~ Figure 3 , a method for forecasting regional distributed photovoltaic output based on satellite cloud images, including the following steps:

[0063] Step 1. According to the regional distributed photovoltaic system divided by grid, the distributed photovoltaic system in the designated area is divided into grids, so that the distance of the smallest unit of the divided grid conforms to the distance indicated by a single pixel of the satellite cloud image. When the actual photovoltaic system When it coincides with the grid line, the grid with the larger proportion of the split part is used as the grid;

[0064] Step 2. Record the measured power data of all photovoltaic power plants in the area, the satellite cloud image of the Internet weather service website, air quality, weather forecast information and cloud altimeter measurement data;

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Abstract

The invention discloses a regional distributed photovoltaic output prediction method based on a satellite cloud picture, and the method comprises the steps: 1, carrying out the dividing of a regional distributed photovoltaic system according to a grid; 2, carrying out the data recording; 3, carrying out the processing of historical data; 4, carrying out the correction of the power data of a power clear sky model; 5, carrying out the calculation of a cloud index; 6, carrying out the normalization processing of different time lag scale data of output power of each grid, corrected clear sky model power, sun spatial-temporal model data, air quality data, weather forecast information and satellite cloud picture cloud index operator data, and building an Elman neural network model through a random training method; 7, inputting the latest calculated input variable parameters into the above models, and enabling the prediction data of each grid to be superposed to serve as the regional photovoltaic output prediction data. The method is higher in prediction precision, and is higher in efficiency.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a method for predicting regional distributed photovoltaic output based on satellite cloud images, which mainly includes a method for grid segmentation and modeling of distributed photovoltaic regions, a data error processing method, and a strategy for improving prediction accuracy by making full use of satellite images. Elman neural network algorithm using stochastic training method. Background technique [0002] With the development of photovoltaic new energy power generation industry, the scale of distributed photovoltaic grid connection is increasing. Due to the randomness, intermittence and volatility of photovoltaic output, it is particularly important to establish an accurate and reliable photovoltaic power prediction system. Most of the existing output prediction methods only consider a single photovoltaic system, which cannot adapt to the situation that there are multiple distributed photovoltaic systems in the...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y02A90/10
Inventor 潘国兵吴雄增陈金鑫毛涛涛普帅帅卢从成叶颖
Owner ZHEJIANG UNIV OF TECH
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