A Risk Assessment Method for Reservoir Water Supply Safety Based on Joint Probability Analysis

Abstract

The invention discloses a reservoir water supply safety risk evaluation method based on reservoir inflow and water quality combined probability analysis. The invention relates to the field of surface water environment risk evaluation and research. The method comprises the following steps: (1) acquiring reservoir inflow water quality multi-year data, judging the change tendency of water quality and water quantity, and determining reservoir main pollutants and water change typical seasons; (2) determining edge probability distribution of the water quality and the water quantity respectively, and determining a water quality and water quantity combined probability function by adopting a Frank Copula model; (3) performing screen setting on the water quality and the water quantity of each section of the reservoir according to the surface water quality standard and a reservoir water supply quantity parameter, calculating the negative scene occurrence probability in the typical seasons by utilizing the combined probability function, and realizing risk evaluation on the reservoir water supply safety. The invention provides the method based on reservoir inflow and water quality combined probability analysis, the negative scene occurrence probability is determined, risk evaluation on reservoir water supply safety is realized, and scientific basis is provided for solving the problem of reservoir water supply safety.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of reservoir water supply safety risk assessment research, in particular to a reservoir water supply safety risk assessment method based on joint probability analysis of inflow flow and water quality, which provides scientific basis for comprehensive management of reservoirs. Background technique [0002] Reservoirs, as water bodies with multiple functions such as water supply and irrigation, are closely related to human production and life. For a long time, the research on the changing trends and laws of reservoir water quality and water volume has been valued by scholars at home and abroad. Since the reservoir is greatly affected by human activities, the sources of pollution are wide, the channels are multiple, and the types are complex. The water quality and quantity of the reservoir are directly related to the water supply safety of the entire city. Reservoir water supply safety risk refers to the probability that...

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Problems solved by technology

In addition, how to give the joint probability distribution interval of inflow flow and water quality under the goal of reservoir water supply safety, so as to directly serve the regional water resources protection and management decision-making, although it is the trend of scientific management of water resources and water environment, the current research still remains to be done. not yet covered

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