Ultra-short-term photovoltaic power forecasting method based on cloud change analysis

Abstract

The invention discloses an ultra-short-term photovoltaic power prediction method based on cloud change analysis, and belongs to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation. The present invention uses real-time image acquisition technology to obtain image information over the photovoltaic power station in real time, predicts the weather conditions above the photovoltaic power station, and then inputs the prediction results as correction parameters into the photovoltaic power generation model to predict the output power of the photovoltaic power station. This invention can achieve the effect of accurately predicting ultra-short-term power, and the budget accuracy can reach 0 to 4 hours in the future. The power grid dispatcher can correct the power generation plan of the day in real time based on the prediction results, so as to improve the power generation plan on the premise of ensuring that the power grid can operate stably. The power generation utilization rate of photovoltaic power stations.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an ultra-short-term photovoltaic power prediction method based on cloud variation analysis, which belongs to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation. Background technique [0002] At present, China's photovoltaic power generation has entered a stage of large-scale and rapid development. However, due to the intermittent and random characteristics of photovoltaic power generation, as a large number of photovoltaic power generation is connected to the grid, it will inevitably bring severe challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power system and ensure the quality of power. If the output power of photovoltaic power plants can be judged in advance There is a technical basis for adjusting the power grid dispatching operation plan in time to solve the impact of the randomness of photovoltaic power generation on the safety of the power grid. [0003] Ultra-short-term power forecasting of photovoltaic power gene...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, provide an ultra-short-term photovoltaic power prediction method based on cloud-variation analysis, and solve the problem that the ultra-short-term photovoltaic power prediction accuracy of photovoltaic power stations in the prior art is not high, resulting in the utilization of photovoltaic power generation. low rate technical issues

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