Space load predication method with consideration of cellular development degree

A space load forecasting and cell technology, applied in forecasting, computing, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as unbalanced cell load distribution, affecting the accuracy of space load forecasting results, etc., and achieve the effect of scientific method

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-08-03
NORTHEAST DIANLI UNIVERSITY
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The different development degrees of classification loads in different cells lead to unbalanced distribution of cell loads, which directly affects the accuracy of spatial load prediction results

Method used

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  • Space load predication method with consideration of cellular development degree
  • Space load predication method with consideration of cellular development degree
  • Space load predication method with consideration of cellular development degree

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Embodiment Construction

[0038] The present invention will be further described below using the accompanying drawings and examples.

[0039] refer to Figure 1-Figure 3 , a space load forecasting method for predicting the maximum value of the planning target year cell load of the present invention, comprising the following steps:

[0040] 1) Establish a power geographic information system (GIS)

[0041] Establish a power geographic information system (GIS) that includes a 10kV feeder power supply range layer and a land use information layer, and use the established power geographic information system (GIS) to integrate land use information, 10kV feeder power supply range and classified load data, and Based on the data of each cell in 2004-09, determine the average density of classified loads in the planning area, see Table 1;

[0042] 2) Generate cells

[0043] In the power geographic information system (GIS), cells are generated with the power supply range of 10kV feeder, such as figure 1 shown; ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a space load predication method with consideration of a cellular development degree. The method comprises: a power geographic information system (GIS) is established, and integration of land information, a power supply range of a 10-kV feeder line, and classification load data is realized; cellular units are generated in the GIS in the power supply range of the 10-kV feeder line; changing situations of classification load densities are described by using a logistic function, and regular curves corresponding to all classification load density development trends are generated respectively; development degrees of classification load densities in all cellular units in a current year are determined, and thus positions of classification load densities in all cellular units in a current year on the load density development rule curves of the classes are found; and a cellular load value of a target year is predicted, a classification load density index in the cellular unit at the target year is determined by combining the classification load density development rule curves according to the classification load density development degrees in all cellular units at the current year, and then multiplication by areas corresponding to all kinds of loads in the cellular units to realize prediction of cellular load values.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of space load forecasting in urban distribution network planning, and is a space load forecasting method considering the development degree of cells. Background technique [0002] Spatial load forecasting refers to the prediction of the size and location of the future power load in the power supply area, or the spatial load forecasting is the prediction of the spatial and temporal distribution of power load in a designated area. The prediction results provide the spatial distribution information of the future load, which can effectively guide the capacity selection and installation location of electrical equipment, and make the investment and operation of the power grid more reasonable and economical, which is the basis of power system planning. [0003] At present, the main methods of spatial load forecasting include trend method, multivariable method, land use simulation method and load density index method. The tr...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 肖白杨欣桐姜卓
Owner NORTHEAST DIANLI UNIVERSITY
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