Short-term photovoltaic power prediction method based on improved EMD algorithm and Elman algorithm

Abstract

The invention discloses a short-term photovoltaic power prediction method based on an improved EMD algorithm and an Elman algorithm. The short-term photovoltaic power prediction method comprises the steps: step S1, carrying out clustering analysis on historical data, and determining a category of a to-be-predicted day and corresponding irradiation intensity to-be-predicted time intervals; step S2, establishing a same-type day time sequence in the category of the to-be-predicted day according to main environmental characteristics; step S3, utilizing the improved EMD algorithm to perform median filtering on the same-type day time sequence, carrying out mode decomposition according to fluctuation degrees, and classifying same-type modes into a category; step S4, adopting the Elman algorithm to predict irradiation intensity of each mode category, and further acquiring photovoltaic hourly power generating power value. The short-term photovoltaic power prediction method aims to increase prediction precision of irradiation intensity under the condition of weak irradiation, is proven to be adapt to irradiation intensity prediction of different-type days, and achieves more rapid and accurate prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a short-term photovoltaic power prediction method based on an improved EMD algorithm and an Elman algorithm, which belongs to new energy generation prediction technology. Background technique [0002] Solar energy, as a kind of green and clean energy, has been widely concerned by the public. In order to promote the use of solar energy, my country implements a power subsidy policy for distributed photovoltaic power generation. Since the subsidy enjoyed by distributed photovoltaic power generation mainly depends on its own power generation, it is unavoidable that some speculative users will use certain technical means to make distributed photovoltaic on-grid meters measure more power generation, and then there is a risk of obtaining high subsidies. For this reason, it is urgent to carry out relevant research on distributed photovoltaic on-grid electricity forecasting technology to achieve effective supervision of distributed pho...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Purpose of the invention: In order to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention provides a short-term photovoltaic power prediction method based on the improved EMD algorithm and the Elman algorithm. Cluster analysis of historical data and selection of similar days of the same type, using the improved EMD algorithm and Elman neural network to predict the daily radiation intensity hourly, so as to realize the radiation intensity prediction of different types of days and improve the weak radiation situation The problem of poor prediction accuracy

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