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Short-term prediction method of icing based on time series analysis and Kalman filter algorithm

A technology of time series analysis and Kalman filter, which is applied in the field of short-term prediction of icing based on time series analysis and Kalman filter algorithm, can solve the problems of insufficient prediction accuracy, achieve a high degree of automation, and shorten the modeling calculation time.

Active Publication Date: 2020-03-27
XI'AN POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY
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  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a short-term prediction method of icing based on time series analysis and Kalman filter algorithm, which solves the problem of insufficient prediction accuracy of the existing simple time series analysis model

Method used

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  • Short-term prediction method of icing based on time series analysis and Kalman filter algorithm
  • Short-term prediction method of icing based on time series analysis and Kalman filter algorithm
  • Short-term prediction method of icing based on time series analysis and Kalman filter algorithm

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Effect test

Embodiment

[0081] Using the on-site data obtained by the icing online monitoring system, the icing data of transmission lines in Guizhou Power Grid in 2014 were collected, and these data were comprehensively counted, and the icing time series model was obtained as

[0082] X(t)+1.0836X(t-1)-0.1933X(t-2)+0.0138X(t-3)-0.0143X(t-4)

[0083] =ε(t)+1.3328ε(t-1)-0.5320ε(t-2)

[0084] After the icing time series model is established, a hybrid algorithm icing prediction based on time series analysis and Kalman filter algorithm is established with the help of MATLAB software, and the predicted value is calculated, as shown in image 3 As shown in the forecast effect diagram, the mixed algorithm forecasting model is used to predict the sample data, which can accurately predict the short-term increase and decrease trend of the line ice thickness, and due to the accumulation of errors, the algorithm model can predict after a few days The general trend of ice thickness increase and decrease is shown...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an icing short-term prediction method based on time sequence analysis and a Kalman filtering algorithm. The icing short-term prediction method is concretely implemented according to the following steps that step 1: a power transmission line icing time-thickness data sequence is acquired; step 2: an icing time sequence model is established according to the icing time-thickness data sequence in the step 1, and order determination is performed on the icing time sequence model by adopting a genetic algorithm; step 3: a hybrid algorithm icing prediction model is established through the Kalman filtering algorithm according to the icing time sequence model after order determination obtained in the step 2; and step 4: icing prediction is performed according to the icing prediction model obtained in the step 3. The deficiency of the existing power transmission line icing prediction method performing prediction of icing amount only based on the meteorological conditions of the current time point can be compensated, and the problem of insufficient precision of prediction through the pure time sequence analysis model can also be solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of on-line monitoring of power transmission lines, and in particular relates to a short-term ice-covering prediction method based on time series analysis and a Kalman filtering algorithm. Background technique [0002] The icing of transmission lines is a serious natural disaster for power systems. It often causes transmission line poles and towers to fall, conductor galloping, broken wires (shares), hardware damage, damage, and conductors to discharge between phases or to the ground. Major accidents such as insulator flashover and tripping have brought serious harm to the safe and stable operation of the power system. Therefore, it is necessary to accurately predict the ice thickness, so as to formulate effective anti-icing strategies and ensure the safe and reliable operation of transmission lines. [0003] The icing of transmission lines is a process of accumulation over time, and the amount of icing on t...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06N3/12
CPCG06N3/126G06Q10/04
Inventor 黄新波李弘博朱永灿王玉鑫郑心心王一各崔运涛
Owner XI'AN POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY
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