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Power grid ice-coating long-term forecasting method based on Asia polar vortex factors

A technology of icing and polar vortex, applied in the field of power transmission and distribution

Active Publication Date: 2015-11-25
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +2
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a long-term forecasting method for power grid icing based on the Asian polar vortex factor, which has strong operability and accurate prediction of power grid icing. High rate, which solves the problem of long-term prediction of grid icing

Method used

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  • Power grid ice-coating long-term forecasting method based on Asia polar vortex factors
  • Power grid ice-coating long-term forecasting method based on Asia polar vortex factors
  • Power grid ice-coating long-term forecasting method based on Asia polar vortex factors

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Embodiment Construction

[0045] The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0046] In this example, based on the parameters of the Asian polar vortex in 2013, the winter icing of Hunan power grid was predicted and analyzed, such as figure 1 Said, this method comprises the following steps:

[0047] 1. Collect historical polar vortex data and icing data

[0048] The parameters of the Asian Polar Vortex are collected from 1951 to 2013, including the monthly Asian Polar Vortex area index and intensity index. The average number of ice-covered days over the years is collected by the meteorological department, and the ice-covered degree is classified according to the average number of ice-covered days: light ice-covered, 0 days < average number of ice-covered days ≤ 3 days; moderate ice-covered, 3 days < average number of ice-covered days ≤5 days; severe icing, 5 days < average icing days < 11 days; particularly s...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a power grid ice-coating long-term forecasting method based on Asia polar vortex factors. The method comprises the steps that 1, historical polar vortex data and ice-coating data are collected; 2, Pearson correlation coefficients are calculated, and ice-coating forecasting factors are obtained; 3, the ice-coating forecasting factors are divided into multiple sections according to the numerical magnitude; 4, frequencies of occurrence of ice-coating levels corresponding to all the sections of all the forecasting factors are calculated; 5, the frequency of occurrence of the ice-coating level of a forecasting year under the influence of the forecasting factors is obtained according to the sections where the forecasting factors of the forecasting year are located; 6, the probabilities of occurrence of all the ice-coating levels of winter power grid ice-coating in the forecasting years are obtained. According to the power grid ice-coating long-term forecasting method based on the Asia polar vortex factors, the operability is high, the accuracy rate for forecasting the power grid ice-coating of an electric transmission line is high, and the difficult problem of power grid ice-coating long-term forecasting is solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power transmission and distribution, and in particular relates to a long-term ice-covering forecast method for power grids based on Asian polar vortex factors. Background technique [0002] Power grid icing is one of the natural disasters that seriously endanger the safe and stable operation of transmission lines. Severe icing will lead to a sharp decline in the mechanical and electrical performance of transmission lines, causing grid accidents such as tower collapse, disconnection, conductor galloping, and ice-covered flashover. The national economy has brought huge losses. In the southern ice disaster in early 2008, the direct economic loss of the State Grid Corporation reached more than 12 billion yuan, the direct economic loss of the China Southern Power Grid Corporation was 13.4 billion yuan, power outages in factories, hospitals and residential areas, and the shutdown of the Beijing-Guangzhou electr...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 陆佳政冯涛张红先李波方针艾小猛
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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