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Side slope stable reliability sensitivity analysis method based on Monte Carlo simulation

A technology of Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, calculations, etc., can solve problems such as complex calculation process and sensitivity analysis that cannot solve the simultaneous change of statistical characteristics of multiple variables, and achieve calculation The effect of simple process, avoiding repeated execution, and improving computing efficiency

Active Publication Date: 2015-09-09
WUHAN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

However, this method needs to make a frequency histogram, the calculation process is relatively complicated, and it cannot solve the sensitivity analysis problem of simultaneous changes in the statistical characteristics of multiple variables

Method used

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  • Side slope stable reliability sensitivity analysis method based on Monte Carlo simulation
  • Side slope stable reliability sensitivity analysis method based on Monte Carlo simulation
  • Side slope stable reliability sensitivity analysis method based on Monte Carlo simulation

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Embodiment 1

[0112] 1. Project introduction

[0113] The James Bay dam is a water conservancy project located in Quebec, Canada. The dam is 50km long. One of the design schemes is as follows: image 3 As shown, the embankment is 12m high, with a 56m wide platform in the middle, the slope angle is 18.4°, and the slope ratio is 3:1. The soil layer below the dam body consists of hard clay, marine clay, lacustrine clay and moraine from top to bottom.

[0114] Reference [1], this embodiment considers 6 random variables, that is, the uncertainty parameters to be studied, which are the thickness of hard clay T cr , Undrained shear strength S of marine clay uM , Undrained shear strength S of lacustrine clay uL , the distance from the dam foundation to the moraine layer D Till , Friction angle φ of dam filling Fill and heavy gamma Fill . Uncertainty parameters are subject to normal distribution and independent of each other, and the corresponding statistical characteristics are shown in Tabl...

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Abstract

The invention provides a side slope stable reliability sensitivity analysis method based on Monte Carlo simulation. The side slope stable reliability sensitivity analysis method based on the Monte Carlo simulation includes: step 1, constructing a joint probability density function of uncertain parameters; step 2, using a Monte Carlo simulation method to obtain a side slope failure probability, and obtaining a failure sample; step 3, designing various sensitivity analysis schemes, and respectively constructing joint probability density functions of uncertain parameters under all the sensitivity analysis schemes; step 4, obtaining side slope failure probabilities under all the sensitivity analysis schemes; step 5, obtaining a variation trend of the side slope failure probabilities along with statistical characteristics of the uncertain parameters according to the side slope failure probabilities under all the sensitivity analysis schemes. The side slope stable reliability sensitivity analysis method based on the Monte Carlo simulation is wide in application range, simple in computation process, high in computation efficiency, and capable of effectively revealing a response regularity between the reliability level of a side slope and the statistical characteristics of the uncertain parameters, and has certain guiding significance for side slope risk control, design optimization and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a slope parameter sensitivity analysis method, in particular to a slope stability reliability sensitivity analysis method based on Monte Carlo simulation. Background technique [0002] Slope sensitivity analysis based on reliability theory can effectively characterize the influence of input parameter uncertainty and its statistical characteristics (mean, variance, etc.) on slope stability and reliability, and has important guiding significance for slope design and reinforcement. , has received extensive attention in recent years. As a stochastic simulation method for solving reliability, Monte Carlo simulation method has been widely used in the field of geotechnical engineering reliability because of its simple concept and strong applicability. However, the Monte Carlo simulation method has the disadvantage that the uncertainty propagation mechanism is not clear, and it is impossible to directly obtain the response law of the ...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
Inventor 李典庆吕天健张浮平曹子君唐小松周创兵
Owner WUHAN UNIV
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