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A Sensitivity Analysis Method for Slope Stability Reliability Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

A Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis technology, which is applied in special data processing applications, instruments, calculations, etc., and can solve the problems of sensitivity analysis and complex calculation process that cannot solve the simultaneous changes of statistical characteristics of multiple variables, so as to avoid The effect of repeated execution, simple calculation process and improved calculation efficiency

Active Publication Date: 2018-03-27
WUHAN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

However, this method needs to make a frequency histogram, the calculation process is relatively complicated, and it cannot solve the sensitivity analysis problem of simultaneous changes in the statistical characteristics of multiple variables

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  • A Sensitivity Analysis Method for Slope Stability Reliability Based on Monte Carlo Simulation
  • A Sensitivity Analysis Method for Slope Stability Reliability Based on Monte Carlo Simulation
  • A Sensitivity Analysis Method for Slope Stability Reliability Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

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Embodiment 1

[0112] 1. Project introduction

[0113] The James Bay dam is a water conservancy project located in Quebec, Canada. The dam is 50km long. One of the design schemes is as follows: image 3 As shown, the embankment is 12m high, with a 56m wide platform in the middle, the slope angle is 18.4°, and the slope ratio is 3:1. The soil layer below the dam body consists of hard clay, marine clay, lacustrine clay and moraine from top to bottom.

[0114] Reference [1], this embodiment considers 6 random variables, that is, the uncertainty parameters to be studied, which are the thickness of hard clay T cr , Undrained shear strength S of marine clay uM , Undrained shear strength S of lacustrine clay uL , the distance from the dam foundation to the moraine layer D Till , Friction angle φ of dam filling Fill and heavy gamma Fill . Uncertainty parameters are subject to normal distribution and independent of each other, and the corresponding statistical characteristics are shown in Tabl...

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Abstract

The invention provides a sensitivity analysis method for slope stability reliability based on Monte Carlo simulation, comprising: Step 1, constructing a joint probability density function of uncertainty parameters; Step 2, using Monte Carlo simulation method to obtain the slope failure probability, and obtain failure samples; step 3, design a variety of sensitivity analysis schemes, and construct the joint probability density function of the uncertainty parameters under each sensitivity analysis scheme; step 4, obtain the edge Slope failure probability; step 5, according to the slope failure probability of each sensitivity analysis scheme, obtain the change trend of the slope failure probability with the statistical characteristics of the uncertainty parameters. The invention has wide application range, simple calculation process and high calculation efficiency, can effectively reveal the response law between the slope reliability level and the statistical characteristics of uncertainty parameters, and has certain guiding significance for slope risk control, design optimization and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a slope parameter sensitivity analysis method, in particular to a slope stability reliability sensitivity analysis method based on Monte Carlo simulation. Background technique [0002] Slope sensitivity analysis based on reliability theory can effectively characterize the influence of input parameter uncertainty and its statistical characteristics (mean, variance, etc.) on slope stability and reliability, and has important guiding significance for slope design and reinforcement. , has received extensive attention in recent years. As a stochastic simulation method for solving reliability, Monte Carlo simulation method has been widely used in the field of geotechnical engineering reliability because of its simple concept and strong applicability. However, the Monte Carlo simulation method has the disadvantage that the uncertainty propagation mechanism is not clear, and it is impossible to directly obtain the response law of the ...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
Inventor 李典庆吕天健张浮平曹子君唐小松周创兵
Owner WUHAN UNIV
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