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Quantitative analysis method of climate change and human activities on river runoff change

A technology of human activities and climate change, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve problems without clear answers

Active Publication Date: 2016-03-02
NANJING HYDRAULIC RES INST
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
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Problems solved by technology

However, what are the contributions of various climatic factors, such as changes in precipitation and temperature, to changes in river runoff? In addition, what is the impact of land use change and water withdrawal in the watershed on river runoff? There are no clear answers to these questions

Method used

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  • Quantitative analysis method of climate change and human activities on river runoff change
  • Quantitative analysis method of climate change and human activities on river runoff change
  • Quantitative analysis method of climate change and human activities on river runoff change

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Embodiment

[0018] Embodiment: a kind of climate change and human activity change quantitative analysis method to river runoff, comprises the following steps:

[0019] (1) Basic data collection: collect hydrometeorological data in the basin: runoff, precipitation, temperature; water resources evaluation data: surface water resources, groundwater resources and total water resources; and human activity data: land use data , water intake and water consumption.

[0020] (2) Trend analysis of hydrometeorological elements: use the Mann-Kendall method to detect the historical evolution trend of runoff in the watershed, and analyze the sudden change point of the annual runoff process. The specific calculation steps are:

[0021] ①Given the null hypothesis H 0 , indicating that the runoff process has no significant increase or decrease trend;

[0022] ②Construct the Mann-Kendall statistic UF i , to test whether the null hypothesis is true, the calculation formula is:

[0023] ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a quantitative analysis method for river runoff change caused by climate change and human activities. The method comprises the steps of collecting hydrological and meteorological information, water resource evaluation data and human activity information in a basin, judging a mutation point of an annual runoff process, wherein the part before the mutation point is a natural stage of the basin and the part after the mutation point is an influence stage of the basin, the entire natural runoff sequence is reconstructed by using the hydrological and meteorological information of the natural stage, using hydrological model rating model parameters and then using meteorological information of the whole period, and analyzing the contribution of climate change and human activities to the river runoff change by using the difference between the reconstructed natural runoff and the actually measured runoff. By adopting the quantitative analysis method for river runoff change caused by climate change and human activities, in combination with situations such as hydrological and meteorological factor changes, land use changes and water use in the basin, the binary attribution analysis of the river runoff change caused by climate change and human activities is extended to quaternary attribution analysis of the river runoff change caused by rainfall change, climate change, land use change and water use.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the application field of hydrology and water resources, in particular to a quantitative analysis method for river runoff changes. Background technique [0002] River runoff is the core link of the hydrological cycle and the most important form of surface water resources, which directly affects the living conditions of human beings. However, due to factors such as climate change and human activities in recent decades, river runoff in many river basins in China and around the world has undergone significant changes. Most notably, the runoff of rivers such as the Hai, Yellow, and Liao in northern China has shown a marked downward trend. Taking the Haihe River Basin as an example, the annual average runoff from 1980 to 2008 was 40% to 70% lower than that from 1961 to 1980. The sharp reduction of river runoff not only poses a severe challenge to human living conditions and becomes a bottleneck restricting the sustainable developme...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 王国庆鲍振鑫张建云金君良刘翠善刘艳丽贺瑞敏王小军万思成
Owner NANJING HYDRAULIC RES INST
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