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Method for analyzing running trend of electric power communication transmission network

A trend analysis and power communication technology, applied in transmission systems, digital transmission systems, electrical components, etc., can solve problems such as relying on the work ability of operation and maintenance personnel, failing to realize the index analysis model, and lacking accurate and reliable theoretical basis.

Inactive Publication Date: 2014-04-02
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +3
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Problems solved by technology

[0006] (2) Failure to implement core technologies such as indicator analysis models and early warning algorithms
At this stage, there is still a lack of accurate and reliable theoretical basis for the method of index analysis and how to judge through index data and give effective fault warning. Ability to work, susceptible to interference from human factors

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  • Method for analyzing running trend of electric power communication transmission network
  • Method for analyzing running trend of electric power communication transmission network
  • Method for analyzing running trend of electric power communication transmission network

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Embodiment Construction

[0023] The specific implementation content of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0024] In combination with the present invention, the process flow of the performance trend analysis method is as follows: figure 2 As shown, the final complete realization of the operation trend analysis process of the power communication transmission network is as follows: figure 1 As shown, the detailed steps are as follows:

[0025] Step 1: Obtain basic data and provide dynamic and static parameters for the trend analysis model;

[0026] 1. Dynamic parameter collection

[0027] Dynamic parameters include: performance data such as optical power, bit error rate, delay, and packet loss rate in the transmission network. The present invention mainly conducts trend analysis on optical power and bit error rate, and takes time delay and packet loss rate as references for performance prediction.

[0028] Dynamic parameter collecti...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for analyzing a running trend of an electric power communication transmission network. The method is characterized by comprising the following steps: (1) acquiring basic data, and providing dynamic parameters and static parameters for a trend analysis model; (2) performing mutation analysis on performance; judging whether the acquired dynamic parameters are out of limit or not based on a performance parameter early warning threshold value; directly generating a performance alarm if the acquired dynamic parameters are out of limit; (3) performing trend analysis when the performance is steadily changed; constructing an error rate and optical power analysis model according to dynamically acquired performance parameters by adopting secondary dynamic exponential smoothing; obtaining a trend analysis weight through a steepest descent iteration method by combining the dynamic parameters and historical data, and further, constructing a linear prediction equation; (4) performing early warning computation, and outputting a performance prediction result. The method disclosed by the invention is applied to a communication management system, and therefore, a powerful data support is provided for the whole-process intelligent computational analysis from data acquisition, trend prediction, early warning analysis and a maintenance strategy.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for analyzing the running trend of a power communication transmission network, in particular to a method for analyzing the running trend of a power communication transmission network based on a running trend analysis model and a performance index prediction algorithm, and belongs to the technical field of power communication. Background technique [0002] With the construction of the smart grid, by the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", the scale of the power communication network will be three times that of the current network. Realize the foundation of automation, informatization and interaction. At present, the operation and maintenance of the communication network is basically based on the operation status management mode of equipment alarm and the maintenance management mode based on periodic plan. In order to change the passive processing mode that has been relying solely on equipment alarms, it is necessary t...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): H04L12/24
Inventor 贾平戴勇吴海洋蒋承伶汪大洋吴子辰符士侃江凇董宇鹏戚娟
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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