Electric car charging load forecasting system and method based on Monte Carlo simulation method

Abstract

The invention provides an electric car charging load forecasting method based on the Monte Carlo simulation method. The electric car charging load forecasting method based on the Monte Carlo simulation method includes the following steps that the simulation frequency is set, the car charging action is confirmed, charging load curves are accumulated to obtain an overall charging load. Whether the current simulation frequency is larger than the set simulation frequency or not is judged. Whether the overall charging load serving as a simulation result converges or not is judged. If yes, the simulation result is output. If not, returning is performed and the simulation frequency is reset. The invention further provides a corresponding system. The electric car charging load forecasting system and method based on the Monte Carlo simulation method can dynamically forecast the charging load of the electric car and meanwhile, the forecasting precision is controllable. The forecasting result can serve as the great accordance for a power grid enterprise to carry out the study on coping with influences brought by the large-scale development of electric cars on the power grid and provide reference for power grid construction and planning of the power grid enterprise, planning and construction of a charging and electrical changing station, interaction technological study between the power grid and the electric car and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of electric vehicle charging load forecasting, in particular to a system and method for electric vehicle charging load forecasting based on a Monte Carlo simulation method. Background technique [0002] The number of electric vehicles reflects the development scale of electric vehicles to a certain extent. However, due to factors such as the location of electric vehicles and the uncertainty of charging time, electric vehicles will be a dynamic and cannot be ignored for the power grid. charging load. [0003] At the moment when electric vehicles are in their infancy, due to the small number of electric vehicles, the investment cost and construction capacity of most charging and swapping stations are configured according to the actual number of supporting vehicles and the frequency of use. The load is small and has almost no impact on the grid. However, when the number of electric vehicles reaches a certain scale, if ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, due to factors such as the uncertainty of the location of electric vehicles and the randomness of charging time, the load of electric vehicle charging and swapping stations is time-varying. Therefore, it is often difficult to accurately describe its complex nonlinear characteristics using traditional methods.

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