Judging method for sensibility of post-earthquake debris flow gully and application thereof

Abstract

The invention discloses a judging method for the sensibility of a post-earthquake debris flow gully and application of the judging method. The method comprises the following steps: determining a possibility comprehensive judging value P of all slumped masses in a researching region under any grading condition of six evaluation factors; integrating previous grading conditions according to the size of the value P to obtain a special sensibility grading region of the six evaluation factors and establishing a corresponding scoring standard; then, acquiring score values of the gully on the six evaluation factors in reference to the scoring standard and according to the distribution condition of the single gully on the six evaluation factors; and finally, determining an evaluation factor weight with combination of a grey correlation method and establishing a single gully debris flow sensibility judging model to carry out debris flow prediction. Compared with the prior art, the judging method sufficiently considers region characteristics of the researching region of the single gully, avoids the error of a manually divided sensibility grading region of the evaluation factors of single gully debris flow, and can be used for performing specific-grade division on the evaluation factors rapidly and accurately so as to realize the effective judgment on the sensibility of the single gully debris flow.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a probability-based method for discriminating the susceptibility of debris flow ditch after an earthquake, and the prediction and forecast of the susceptibility intensity of the debris flow outbreak in the post-earthquake area. Background technique [0002] After the "5.12" Wenchuan earthquake, the "4.14" Yushu earthquake and the "4.20" Lushan earthquake, a large number of debris flows broke out in the earthquake area. Due to the lack of an effective method for dividing the sensitivity interval of single-ditch evaluation factors, it is impossible to accurately evaluate the sensitivity of debris flow, resulting in a large number of casualties and property losses caused by sudden debris flow. For example, in 2010, the Dujiangyan mudslide in Sichuan caused Longchichang Town to be flooded; in 2010, the Zhouqu mudslide in Gansu caused 1,744 deaths and missing; in 2013, the Shimian Xiongjiagou mudslide in Sichuan caused 28 casualties...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the existing debris flow sensitivity discrimination methods do not combine the probability of landslides in the entire study area on the evaluation factors to determine the evaluation factor grading intervals, but only artificially classify the evaluation factors according to the characteristics of a single ditch, so it is impossible to determine the evaluation factor classification range. Effective identification of post-debris flow ditch susceptibility

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