Electric load prediction method used for electric power based on factors of temperature and festivals and holidays

Abstract

The invention relates to a data processing method for monitoring and prediction in the electrical power system, in particular to an electric load prediction method used for electric power based on factors of temperature and festivals and holidays. The electric load prediction method used for the electric power based on the factors of the temperature and the festivals and holidays comprises the steps of building a model by using historical data, distinguishing electricity utilization data in the festivals and holidays from electricity utilization data in workdays, building a judging dummy variable, building a short-term prediction model of the load by using the temperature and the dummy variable, carrying out a significance testing of independent variables of the model under the alike information criterion (AIC), and finally obtaining a short-term load prediction value by using the model. Due to the fact that the load prediction value is obtained according to the model and by considering the factors of the temperature and the festivals and holidays, prediction effect is good, and prediction precision is high.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a data processing method for monitoring and forecasting purposes in a power system, in particular to a power load forecasting method based on temperature and holiday factors. Background technique [0002] The electricity consumption information collection system for power users is an important technical platform for the implementation of orderly power consumption management, and provides important technical support for ensuring that power cuts do not pull the road during the implementation of orderly power consumption management. Power load forecasting is a newly developed and important function in the electricity consumption information collection system of power users, which provides an important basis for the formulation and implementation of orderly power consumption schemes. Accurate load forecasting can rationally formulate an orderly power consumption plan, optimize the allocation of power resources in response to the sh...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Short-term load forecasting is currently mainly for power system dispatching and planning departments to arrange power purchase plans and formulate operation modes. Due to the many holidays under the current system, the user's power load fluctuates greatly. In order to ensure the reliability of the user's power consumption, it is often necessary to To formulate electricity consumption plan, the current forecasting method adopts the user-based load forecasting method, such as time series forecasting method, gray forecasting theory, macro forecasting method, etc., but the theoretical basis is not strong, the factors considered are insufficient, and the forecasting accuracy is poor , the prediction effect is not good

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