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Method and system for predicting short-term running water

A runoff, short-term technology, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical and digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as poor prediction accuracy, achieve the effect of simple structure, avoid parameter uncertainty problems, and clear concepts

Inactive Publication Date: 2013-01-09
GUIZHOU WUJIANG HYDROPOWER DEV
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Problems solved by technology

However, most of these models are based on certain assumptions, and the prediction accuracy is often poor

Method used

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  • Method and system for predicting short-term running water
  • Method and system for predicting short-term running water
  • Method and system for predicting short-term running water

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Embodiment Construction

[0047] Embodiments of the present invention: a short-term runoff forecasting method (for the Wujiang River Basin), such as figure 1 , figure 2 shown, including the following steps:

[0048] S1, analyze the law of watershed runoff, and initialize the data. The analysis of watershed runoff law includes the analysis of watershed correlation and characteristics, the analysis of watershed runoff sequence cycle and trend, the division of hydrological years, the stages of reservoir scheduling and the selection of typical years of watershed cascades;

[0049] S2, establishing and calling a short-term runoff forecasting model;

[0050] S3, solving the short-term runoff forecasting model, checking whether the accuracy of the model is optimal, and outputting the short-term runoff forecasting results.

[0051] The analysis of the watershed runoff law in step S1 will be described in detail below.

[0052] 1. Watershed correlation and characteristics analysis

[0053] 1.1 Intra-year di...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method and system for predicting short-term running water. The method comprises the steps of: S1, analyzing a running water law in a river basin and initializing data, wherein the analysis of the running water law in the river basin comprises analysis on relevance and characteristics of the river basin, analysis on running water sequence period and trend of the river basin, hydrologic year division, staging of reservoir regulation and selection of step-shaped typical year of the river basin; S2, establishing and calling a short-term running water prediction model; and S3, solving the short-term running water prediction model, verifying if the precision of the model is optimal, and outputting a short-term running water prediction result. According to the method and system for predicting the short-term running water, disclosed by the invention, the precision of prediction of the short-term running water can be improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a short-term runoff forecasting method and system, and belongs to the technical field of runoff forecasting of cascade hydropower station groups. Background technique [0002] Runoff prediction is of great significance to the operation and management of reservoir hydropower stations. It is an important basis for correctly formulating the optimal operation mode of the reservoir and the power generation plan of the hydropower station, and directly affects the operation mode and benefit of the reservoir. For short-term runoff forecasting, due to the influence of comprehensive factors such as climate, basin underlying surface conditions, and human activities, daily runoff shows stronger nonlinear, variability, and multi-scale characteristics, making daily runoff forecasting more difficult . [0003] At present, the methods used in runoff forecast at home and abroad mainly include cause analysis method, statistical analysis method,...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 朱江王义民李泽宏肖燕孙东永王敏张永永
Owner GUIZHOU WUJIANG HYDROPOWER DEV
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