Forecasting method of traffic capacity of bus rapid transit system

Abstract

The invention discloses a forecasting method of the traffic capacity of a bus rapid transit system. The forecasting method comprises the following steps of: (1) calculating the traffic capacity of the bus rapid transit system according to a formula; (2) comparing the calculated value of the traffic capacity of the bus rapid transit system with an expected value to obtain a difference value; (3) adjusting parameters in the formula according to the difference value; (4) calculating the traffic capacity of the bus rapid transit system after the adjustment; and (5) correspondingly formulating a measure for improving the traffic capacity of the bus rapid transit system according to the calculated traffic capacity of the bus rapid transit system and various parameter set values during calculating the traffic capacity of the bus rapid transit system. According to the method disclosed by the invention, the traffic capacity of the bus rapid transit system can be accurately and quickly forecasted, and various factors influencing the traffic capacity of the bus rapid transit system are accurately and quantitatively determined so as to be used as an important reference for perfecting the planning and the design of the bus rapid transit system and optimizing and promoting the operation efficiency of the bus rapid transit system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of rapid transit systems, in particular to a method for predicting traffic capacity of rapid transit systems. Background technique [0002] Capacity analysis is the basic theory of BRT system planning, design, operation and evaluation. At present, more than ten cities in China have opened and operated BRT, but there is no scientific and accurate analysis and calculation method for the traffic capacity. As a result, some system facilities and transport capacity allocation do not match the passenger flow demand, and the system is oversaturated or idle. [0003] In foreign countries, the research on the traffic capacity of the BRT system began with the research on the traffic capacity of the ground conventional bus system. Relevant research in North America began in the 1960s. In 1961, the progress report of the Public Transport Branch of the HRB Highway Capacity Committee was based on observational data and studied the...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, according to field investigations, the calibration of the above three models for factors such as the mean value of stop time, the fluctuation coefficient of stop time and inter-arrival interval, the relationship between traffic capacity and station queuing delay is inconsistent with the current situation in China, and the traffic capacity calculated in theory is not consistent with the domestic BRT Actual difference in operation

In addition, although the research methods proposed by Feng Jun and Xu Kangming can better reflect the operating conditions of Beijing, Hangzhou, Kunming and other places, due to the limitations of the few survey systems available at that time, the analysis of parameters is not detailed and perfect. Therefore, the measures formulated to increase the capacity of the BRT system will play a limited role in improving the efficiency of the BRT system.

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