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Method for predicting icing degree of power gird

A prediction method and icing technology, applied in the field of power transmission and distribution, can solve the problems of complex prediction models and failure to explore the formation law of icing climate on transmission lines, so as to achieve the effect of early response and loss reduction

Active Publication Date: 2012-10-24
STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER +2
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, domestic and foreign studies on transmission line icing prediction mainly consider the microscopic process of transmission line icing growth under specific meteorological conditions, such as the representative Imai model, Lenhard model, Goodwin model, Chaine model and Makkonen model, which belong to the transmission line icing growth model. The short-term prediction of ice growth rate, and the prediction model is very complicated, which is only suitable for short-term ice prediction under assumed meteorological conditions, and does not explore the formation law of transmission line icing climate

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  • Method for predicting icing degree of power gird
  • Method for predicting icing degree of power gird
  • Method for predicting icing degree of power gird

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Embodiment Construction

[0024] The following is an example of using the method of the present invention to predict the icing degree of Hunan power grid: From 2008-2009, a long-term forecast of Hunan power grid icing was carried out in November every year. So far, the long-term forecasts are all accurate. The specific method is:

[0025] (1) First, collect, collate, and statistically analyze 60 years of historical meteorological data and power grid icing data in the provincial-level area of ​​Hunan Province, calculate the average number of icing days, and classify the level of power grid icing. The level of grid icing degree is divided into:

[0026] Slight icing: 0 days < average icing days ≤ 3 days;

[0027] Moderate icing: 3 days < average icing days ≤ 5 days;

[0028] Severe icing: 5 days < average icing days < 11 days;

[0029] Particularly severe icing: average icing days ≥ 11 days.

[0030] The average number of ice-covered days is: the sum of the number of ice-covered days at each ice-cove...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting the icing degree of a power gird, comprising the following steps of: finding out seventeen meteorological impact factors with high relativity by using historical icing data, the geographic information meteorological data, computing the weight coefficient of each meteorological impact factor by an analytic hierarchy process, and synthesizing the seventeen meteorological impact factors according to the weight to predict the icing degree of the power gird. The method can predict the icing degree of the power gird one moth in advance, so that a corresponding emergency disposal plan can be made according to a predicting conclusion, a most economical and feasible power gird icing solution can be selected, the power gird deicing equipment, material assets and team can be reserved, the safe and stable running when the power gird is iced can be guaranteed, the early response to the icing of the power gird can be realized, and the loss caused by the icing of the power gird can be reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power transmission and distribution, and in particular relates to a method for predicting the icing degree of a power grid. Background technique [0002] Icing seriously threatens the safe and stable operation of the power grid. In the southern ice disaster in early 2008, more than 1,300 towers of 220kV and above transmission lines of the State Grid collapsed, property losses exceeded 12 billion yuan, power outages occurred in factories, hospitals and residential areas, and the Beijing-Guangzhou electrified railway was shut down. It poses a serious threat to social stability and people's production and life. The long-term prediction of grid icing in advance can make countermeasures in advance according to the forecast results of grid icing, and carry out early warning to reduce the losses caused by grid icing. [0003] At present, domestic and foreign studies on transmission line icing prediction mainly ...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10
Inventor 陆佳政徐勋建李波张红先方针杨莉
Owner STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER
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